claydoctor
Short

USDJPY, IWM, abenomics, 3rd arrow, will it hit the target?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
144 0 3
Backing out and looking at the big picture is helpful. Reading up at these dates shown, this is clearly Abe             effects. Stimulus was easy, the US had shown the way, QE             was easy, the US had shown the way, now, reforms, that is a horse of a different color. A consumer tax hike in April, and a corporate tax rate deduction? Consumer inflation up, wages down, spike in spending big ticket prior to the 3% tax, hangover now? 3% tax increase WILL NOT STIMULATE. 2nd qtr reports GDP down, all down, market has not acknowledged this yet, but will. 3rd qtr to confirm. Govt arguing over STRUCTURAL REFORM, not so easy, divided, will fail. Only thing they can do now is PRINT more Yen, and that is a dead end street named DESPERATE. I say this pattern is a three strikes and you are out, and DOES NOT REPEAT. Just too much else out there to also bring us down, Argentina, Geopolitical, etc. etc. Abe             needs A MAGIC ARROW, and they don't exist (or do they?) WATCHING THIS RED LINE INS AND VERY, VERY CAREFULLY. Note the Bollinger band circles, size of triangles. Also note, RSI and MACD on the downward trend, the middle triangle was the high point of this multi year event and effort. And, of course, this relates closely with IWM             , since it is also at its moment of significance, to complete the HS or to bounce off one of its a long term support lines.
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