ridethepig

ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.11.15

Short
FOREXCOM:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
I wont be covering the macro here today as I have widely mentioned it in the latest Telegram posts. There is a palpable difference in market perceptions around risk, and with that comes opportunity to capitalise on the mis-pricing.

Japanese banks have been shrinking foreign exposure and reducing JPY loans, this is a push up factor for JPY and will help us navigate the JPY pathway comfortably. In my books getting strategically long JPY into year-end makes sense, markets are not prepared for a setback with trade negotiations and with Fed continuing to flood USD supply the USD looks set to march sharply lower.


Those following the macro flows since the beginning of the year will remember the infamous USDJPY chart:


For the technicals engaging in short exposure at key resistance here makes sense 108.6x with initial targets at 107.9x followed by the key level of interest at the bottom of the 107 handle 107.1x.

Jump into the comments with your charts and views on USDJPY and further conversation for all following other risk plays.

Good luck..

Comment: From the Telegram update:

"In my Tradingview Portfolio, interestingly US 2s10s curve flattened further despite yields ticking higher, implying the risk asset rally is overcooked and makes me happy to remain short USDJPY. There is room to add on the 109 handle with only a break above 109.5 requiring reassessment."
Comment: Nothing to broadly update here, risk markets remain less
sanguine.
Comment: 108.65x remains the key level to track here

Comments

Hi bro,

What r the things you are looking at when u r saying dollar will be bearish in 2020 due to oversupply

Thanks alot
Reply
ridethepig glaxycat
Well @glaxycat, a few key things to track here.

Firstly, inflation rate differentials between the US and Rest of World. As inflation domestically in the US picks up pace it effectively causes a weakening of its competitive advantage as USD appreciates. To put simply, the USD needs to depreciate in order to offset the loss in competitive advantage and Powell has taken the driving seat here by adding USD liquidity to ease funding pressures.

Secondly, how the Fed are communicating with markets with respect to inflation targets in their mandate. The jawboning of late aims for a steeper yield curve and lower real yields for longer which will limit the Fed toolbox meaning any overshoots in inflation will not expedite Fed beginning the hiking cycle.

Lastly, Fed injecting USD supply to help with excess reserves to ease fears of money markets short-circuiting. This smells a lot like the environment before 2000 where banks hoarded USD. The scarcity in USD is starting to turn into flooding.

Hope it helps.
Reply
glaxycat ridethepig
@ridethepig, hi too technical...but heads off..to ur time for writing in details and knowledge sharing....will study more fundamentals.
Reply
Comment with your ideas and charts on JPY so that we can further the discussion for all and know you are engaging!
Reply