USDJPY has a new trend continuation signal here, weekly and daily trends are bullish, as well as monthly, quarterly and even yearly. Energy and bonds suggest we will see rising yields for longer, FX looks like the dollar has ample reasons to remain bid and the BOJ and ECB are the weakest central banks here, relatively vs the Fed's policy stance, as well as from a macro standpoint as energy importers facing an energy crunch, which is bound to be negative variable as well. I'm long UUP calls and short NZDUSD, adding some USDJPY exposure here to remain exposed to the dollar trend.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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Approaching target #1 in the weekly chart. I'll watch it closely, at some point it might make sense to sell calls against it, when the weekly time expires perhaps. The quarterly/yearly target is substantially higher, I wouldn't want to rush out of longs prematurely as this is a rather structural trend, from a fundamental perspective.
Trade closed manually
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I will wait and see what happens tomorrow with the ECB rate decision. Out of all FX positions, locked in a 5.07R gain.
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Note that the predicted weekly expiration date for the signal in this post was the exact high! (also topped precisely at the white box target which corresponded to a quarterly/yearly trend).
Great work! After the massive fall on Friday, what are your thoughts on the weekly short term?
IvanLabrie
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@asharaaltamash, trend is now down in the daily and weekly for the Dollar across the board, I think a long term reversal could have happened...
asharaaltamash
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@IvanLabrie, Thanks! I think the trend reveral had already happened with GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD. USDJPY also showed that after the forst BOJ intervention but was simply being a laggard compared to the other pairs. It has now caught up with the other currencies. What are your thought regarding a bounce? What are you seeing as the next resistance levels for a short term bounce or are you expecting further declines before a bounce?
IvanLabrie
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@asharaaltamash, see the update: BOJ intervention didn't contribute much to it, but I think they timed it well overall. I rather not bet on a bounce with a such strong trend signal in DXY. Not much to do here, but watch, since RR is not good for either side and trend is down.
@IvanLabrie, Thanks heaps bro. I made an entry on Friday at 140.50. I'm thinking it'll hit the higher 139 range and maybe exiting there to be safe. What are your thoughts on that?
IvanLabrie
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Never hold a trade when you're trapped in a bad position if it failed to act like you expected it to. I suggest to exit and wait with no positions until you have a clear set up with defined risk and target (and always respect invalidation criteria which would be well defined from the moment you enter).
Vibranium_Capital
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trend is ur friend here
IvanLabrie
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@Vibranium_Capital, and a very strong one, almost unmovable for now, both fundamentally and technically. Much higher bond yields to come, due to energy crisis/inflation and the democrats' crazy spending binge. BOJ not likely to stop the move anytime soon.