I wanted to share this with you, something I have been watching form - we had the Big Bearish Bat with the X leg being up at the 125's level - depending on which way price went with USDJPY - it appears that we may see the drop on USD over next week and following into the following week.
There is also a bearish cypher on 1H chart I have marked here for you to see, if you are looking for a short opportunity, which is what I will be looking for next week - if you would like me to post the Cypher with entries stops and targets let me know and I can post and add to this chart.
If I can get a short entry, if the 1H cypher completes then I may even place a 3 target order and let the 3rd target run as far as I can hoping to get to at least the big bat entry level. When T1 and T2 have been obtained. I would simply leave the 3 position at break even - and watch price action create structure levels to see if I close trade hold trade or trail stops.
The best thing about a break even trade is you have secured your targets so the second or third position is almost like a free ride if you win you win you break even then its ok because you have been given that opportunity based on your analysis to be in this trade and take what ever you want from it. If the price doesnt and we get stopped out then its just a normal loss, one loss for the advanced pattern and the extra position for a structure base move.
The second target is always good because we want to secure our profits and not be greedy, if price falls past 100% and your target was 61.8% and you say to yourself - Oh I should have trailed stops or I should have extended targets then this is somewhat greedy and you will continue to do this because emotionally the last few times you missed what have could have been more profits, then the next 20 trades you lose profits because you extended your target too far and it hits T2 then just drops of to the 38.2 or back below entry for a break even.
Thats why I have suggested you follow your rules with T1 and T2 and use a potential Position 3 T3 for a trade like this. Hope this makes sense and helps
The problem with playing around with your normal strategy of Advanced Patterns could be the difference from turning a winning strategy into a losing strategy over time, stick to your rules - all the best traders
As always I have marked entries stops and targets on screen.
Good Luck and have fun this week traders
Comments
IvanLabrie
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Can you find any larger pattern aiming for a bearish entry higher? Around 122-124?
Oztrade
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Hi Ivan, yes sure - there is a Bearish Bat Pattern - X leg @ 125.270's - putting Short Entry at 124.121's - did you want me to post this chart as well. And copy it to this post
IvanLabrie
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I have a thesis of USDJPY going up with equities.
Intermarket analysis can prove useful to filter setups.
Maybe add it here. This my analysis:
Oztrade
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Yeah it will be interesting to see which way we go this week whether that Friday was just a reaction from the news and we see the correction, or will this change trend in the US pairs. Hence changing trend in others like will AUDUSD go upwards.
Oztrade
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Thats great if we see your analysis hit that level because I will surely take that short entry on the Big Bat