ICmarkets

Our take on the USD/JPY pair...

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
223 0 3
Weekly view: As can be seen from the chart, there’s once again very little to report on last week’s action. Market activity continued to trade in between a swap resistance zone at 122.01-121.40 and a support area drawn from 118.22-119.25.

Weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 122.01-121.40/118.22-119.25.

Daily view: With little change being seen on the weekly timeframe last week, we can see that price also remained confined on this timeframe between demand at 118.60-119.26 and a swap resistance level at 120.59. A breakout above here this week would likely see this market head towards at least swing resistance at 121.72, followed closely by a swap supply zone at 122.15-122.86. On the other hand, a push lower would immediately see price shake hands with support coming in at 118.38.

Daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 118.60-119.26/118.38/120.59/121.72/122.15-122.86.

4hr view: A disappointing U.S. jobs report sent this pair tumbling lower spiking through both Quasimodo support at 119.21/psychological support 119.00 and nearly connecting with the descending channel support taken from the low 119.65. However, the majority of losses from this NFP dive were quickly erased as price reversed and aggressively rallied north into the close 119.87.

This morning’s open 119.98 saw a small eleven-pip gap print on the chart, which consequently has made very little difference to the overall structure of this pair. Since we’re receiving little Intel             from the higher timeframe structures right now, other than of course, price is range bound, here are some intraday levels we have our eye on today (lower timeframe confirmation required):

Buys:

• Quasimodo support at 119.21/psychological support 119.00 (converges with the lower limit of the daily range, demand at 118.60-119.26). This area has been, and, in our opinion, continues to be the ‘floor’ of this market for the time being.

Sells:

• Channel resistance extended from the high 121.31. Be careful here traders, as fakeouts are common around the extremes of channel formations!
• Mid-level number 120.50. This barrier, as you can see, ties in beautifully with the upper limit of the daily range, 120.59, making it an area likely to see a bounce. Furthermore, checkout the highs just below it circled in pink (120.34/120.40) which line up perfectly with the aforementioned downward channel. Traders will be looking to fade these highs and place their stops just above, which will in turn form a beautiful pool of liquidity for daily sellers to short into! Hence our reason for expecting the fakeout of the current channel.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 119.21/119.00 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Downward channel resistance taken from the high 121.31 (120.50 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).

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