Can Bulls Rally From Wolfe Waves' 1-4 Line | #Forex $JPY $USD

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
1487 46


As forecast, price rolled shortly after hitting the qualitative target @ 109.786, defined last September 12th. As per its nature, this "Qual-Target" defines price reversals or retracements greater than the significant 0.618 Fibonacci reversal value. This significant decline occurred at the Point-5 position of a Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"), where price also found support at this WW's Take-Profit line, defined by the extension of points 1 and 2.


As current price nears a significant bullish entrenchment at the 108.651-to-108.815 range, RSI posts a potential Positive Divergence, one that is reminiscent to the 23-25 SEP range, which heralded the rallying in price sending price into its geometric completion of the WW. This RSI signal is a much rarer and very telling indication of an imminent price movement, in contrast to its Bullish Divergence cousin.


Turning the analysis to non-price events, let us consider the RSI at this point, which tells its own bear vs. bull war story.

First, consider the back to back failures at its 70-Line, which occurred in the form of a double-top. This 70-Line failure alone is a signature of RSI , regardless of the double-top formation at that very same level. When you see this, simply cover your long position, as the internal mathematics of RSI indicates that buyers will be too weak to sustain a bullish venture.

Now, looking a the current price action, a similar event is occurring, where RSI retains a bullish stance as it hovers its 40-Line. In effect, RSI indicates that as far as this 4-hour timeframe goes, bulls and bears have stood their respective grounds, and bulls have NOT given up their intention to push further on up. A background MACD reflects a similar conflict, as its histogram has delved in negative territories while its moving average indicator remains above its zero-line - At this point, a net-positive outlook emanates out of these indicators.


Prior analyses posted in TradingView using this model have defined loftier forecasts (see "Related Ideas" links below). However, in the interest of reasonable timeline, use of smaller timeframe submitted to the predictive/forecasting model suggest the following two targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 110.255 - 01 OCT 2014


2 - TG-x = 110.639 - 01 OCT 2014.


For these targets to remain valid, the EAGLE range would need to be untouched (i.e.: price may cross but not close below the 108.651 to 108.815 range). Look at a significant bullish entrenchment at Points 1, 3, and 5 belonging to WW, which correspond to significant inflection levels in RSI , where the corresponding Point-1 at 109.365 would possibly impose the strongest resistance.


Price behavior remains bullish . Model also retains a bullish stance with qualitative targets slightly above the recent structural high achieved at 110.081 yesterday. So far, price has reacted in the ipsi-directional side of the forecast, as it found support off of the Wolfe Waves' Take Profit 1-4 Line. Look for further discreet behaviors in RSI and MACD to confirm or infirm this predictive analysis and forecast.

It will be very interesting to see how the $SPY / $ES behave (i.e.: will it continue to decline, or reverse at their current respective price levels), considering that both have converted the model bias into bearish territories, despite a tight correlation that has existed between $SPY / $ES and $JPY. If anything, this is further proof that a significant bear/bull war is unfolding at these levels.


David Alcindor
Predicitve Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecasting
Hi David. Will you consider today's pin bar at TG-x, as a sign of reversal? Or you personally consider more confirmation. If affirmative, what does confirmations are?- Thanks, Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - the market rose so far, so quick that it tore through any rationalizable target. I had posted the TG-x target, expecting that this pair would get stretched, but I did not anticipate it would have gone so quick. in fact, the original analysis called for a relief decline first, and then a possible rallying into this extreme target.

To answer your question, indeed, a pinbar, doji, or a relatively large bar opening at the low then reversing towards the low reflects a sure sign of either testing a potential future level, or simply and most commonly a sign of repulsion at that level, where large players may have lined up sell orders.

From the INATITUTIONAL activity, I can tell you that there are currently TWO active LONG traders (long-term), and TWO L.O. to go long (short-term). Therefore, the outlook from a bank standpoint is to remain long ... This is all that I am allowed to reveal. Still, it's pretty telling of the bullish outlook for now.

Now, this is not to say that an interim decline is not in order, or even that these banks are wrong, but it is worth noting what institutional tailwind is pushing this pair forth.

From my predictive/forecasting mode, I can say that several indicators have called for a reversal. The chart alone indicates that a top was reached, and a recent posting of the USDollar idex (a basket of currencies pitted against the USD) shows a TG-Hi has been attained. Still, here too, price has straddled that target, and reversal is expected.

If no reversal occurs, it means that the timeframe in consideration will need to be ignored and I would need to look at a higher timeframe, where larger players are able to interfere. Here, this would be a no brainer to say that #BOJ has been diluting its currency, but I would have expected a temporary respite at the very least. Instead, price has kept on creeping up, like volcanic bile up Gozilla's esophagus.

A little bearish burp would do. Waiting for it.


David Alcindor

+1 Reply
HamedAghajani 4xForecaster
Thanks, it was very helpful.
HamedAghajani HamedAghajani
Do you perform COT index analysis for understanding constitutional appetite?
4xForecaster damir.news
Hi, @damir.news - You posted these charts a full month ago? So sorry they fell under the radar - David
07 OCT 2014 - TECH-NOTE: On The Correlation Between $JPY and $ES:

From "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" and "e-Mini" chatrooms
- Link to e-Mini chatroom: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#Fu3tMkKy660WGNhU
$ES-M15 vs. $JPY-M15:

Here again, looking at the Yen and e-mini SP500 in 15-minute chart - Several observations:

1 - Following a protracted start of a bearish swing, $JPY rallied to slightly higher than 38.2-Fib level as it dipped into a smaller geometry (potentially a small Elliott Wave Expanded Flat (one may perceive the small 3-3-5 internals).

This reactive rally would be considered a smaller-degree 4th wave.

Price went on to decline further to a lower level at 107.741, and reversed to the current position.

Note how the symmetry in the current smaller rally repeats the height that was achieved by the first reactive rally.

In a pattern parlance, this would represent a symmetrical AB=CD pattern (not to confuse with a One2One pattern, where the angles of the rallies would be leaning backwards instead).

Note that the height of the first bearish swing, represented by the letter A, and in which the 0.382-Fibonacci retracement help provide the measure of retracement for not only the first but also the second rally (current position), was also further used to represent the internal bearish swing between the two rallies, represented by the square A".

In other words, there is an important geometric tempo that is maintained here, which is not too dissimilar from the Euclidean Module which I used to use in the past to forecast extent of swings.

On a side note, I have decided to make note of the heights B (the distance between the two 38.2-Fib retracements), as well as C = 1.000-0.382 = 0.618) and D = 0.618.

I expect that these may serve as further module in the price action ahead, or perhaps not at all.

In any case, these are internal measures that are immediately available and worth using, much like a broken branched used as a walking stick down an uncertain trail.

Now, off to the $ES-M15:

Here, we were rather successful in calling 1925.25 as a significant level.

See the recent predictive analysis/forecasting done today to review the frame by frame evolution of as it moved towards this target.

A 'worst-case scenario" was built in as well, which could be used as a stop-loss or a reason for a partial entry.

However, it appear that this was not necessary so far.


Going forward, I would look at price action in the $USDJPY to offer some guidance as to the level where price in $ES might turn around.

More specifically, the levels defined in $JPY are 109.222, which would negate the running flad assumption; 107.741, which we tell me that price is likely to move on down further with or without a completed geometry above; and 108.641, which is the level I would like to see remain intact, as price nears it, but not cross it, so as to maintain a running flat valid.

Hence, a reversal in $JPY at that level should direct the trader's mind's eyes to wave counts in $ES.

The structural levels in $ES were defined as 1939.75, 1944, 75 and 1050.50.

However, if price were to near 1964, or even surpass 1971, I would have to consider higher timeframe, where the interference would probable originate.


Look for a near-lock-step price action between $USDJPY and $ES. It is not always clear to see whcich one may precede the other, but so far, $JPY has led the near-synchronous moves, at time with price ranges far wider than those provided iby $ES in response, and at time, moving in opposite direction, but never to a level that would reach a significant Fibonacci difference in their range differential.


David Alcindor

+2 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
NOTE: Here is the link to the chart: https://www.tradingview.com/e/vyGNETQR/

David Alcindor

+2 Reply
06 OCT 2014 - Update:

Two days ago, we were looking for the development of a Shark at its Fibonacci extended depth of 1.131. This was first supported by a predictive/forecasting model which had defined the following bearish target on October 02nd:

- TG-Lo = 107.941- 02 OCT 2014

Following is a frame by frame evolution of the trade, simply using the charts that were already used for earlier discussions:

In the last chart (today's chart), it is obvious that the pattern had exceeded its minimal 50% retracement of its bearish swing, as it went on to define Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern, which is an expected geometric development following a Scott Carney's Shark completion.

There was a significant failure of the model, as this Shark completed a very short distance ahead of the model's TG-Lo at 107.941. Perhaps fronting this trade would have allowed the aggressive trader to take on a long position, whereas a more conservative trader might have entered at the completion of an internal impulse's Wave-1, although it left very little time to do so.

Interestingly. price rallied to its highest internal Fibonacci level, at 0.886. At this point, the question remains whether price will carve lower lows or surpass the recent high. The following larger frame was posted earlier than the current chart, and indicated the completion of a greater geometric system in a Wolfe Wave. Here, the loftier 109.786 target was attained as per forecast, however, on a pure geometric basis, the 5-prime (5') point remains unanswered, offering a conundrum here, as one has to answer whether better becomes the enemy of good, as the 5-prime is not quite validated - See WEEKLY chart:

Setting our mind's eyes back to the 4-Hour chart (see below), we now have to ponder on what sort of geometry is unfolding. In that chart, all targets have been hit, except the "TG-Hi = 110.255 - 01 OCT 2014". This level would certainly respond to the WEEKLY's demand for a 5-prime completion. However, the model has signaled a nascent bearish market force, which if sustained, would make that target another near-miss.

I would recommend the structural trader to keep an eye on new structural definitions, whether in the carving of higher highs or lower-lows. When price remains relatively tight in such a vice-grip like range, internal wave counts, indicator signaling and structural analysis might offer the earliest concert of directional clues, provided that they have been tested as reliable indications.

A simple RSI interpretation here will tell you that bears are being favored, and the corresponding levels where yellow and red arrows are located will define the strong and strongest levels of overhead resistance, respectively, if price were to rise to them.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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