Can Bulls Rally From Wolfe Waves' 1-4 Line | #Forex $JPY $USD
Traders,
PRICE ROLLS OFF OF WOLFE WAVES COMPLETION:
As forecast, price rolled shortly after hitting the qualitative target @ 109.786, defined last September 12th. As per its nature, this "Qual-Target" defines price reversals or retracements greater than the significant 0.618 Fibonacci reversal value. This significant decline occurred at the Point-5 position of a Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"), where price also found support at this WW's Take-Profit line, defined by the extension of points 1 and 2.
PRICE HOLDS AT WOLFE WAVES' 1-4 PROFIT LINE; BULLS IN FORCE:
As current price nears a significant bullish entrenchment at the 108.651-to-108.815 range, RSI posts a potential Positive Divergence, one that is reminiscent to the 23-25 SEP range, which heralded the rallying in price sending price into its geometric completion of the WW. This RSI signal is a much rarer and very telling indication of an imminent price movement, in contrast to its Bullish Divergence cousin.
RSI TELLS ITS OWN BULL AGAINST BEAR STORY:
Turning the analysis to non-price events, let us consider the RSI at this point, which tells its own bear vs. bull war story.
First, consider the back to back failures at its 70-Line, which occurred in the form of a double-top. This 70-Line failure alone is a signature of RSI, regardless of the double-top formation at that very same level. When you see this, simply cover your long position, as the internal mathematics of RSI indicates that buyers will be too weak to sustain a bullish venture.
Now, looking a the current price action, a similar event is occurring, where RSI retains a bullish stance as it hovers its 40-Line. In effect, RSI indicates that as far as this 4-hour timeframe goes, bulls and bears have stood their respective grounds, and bulls have NOT given up their intention to push further on up. A background MACD reflects a similar conflict, as its histogram has delved in negative territories while its moving average indicator remains above its zero-line - At this point, a net-positive outlook emanates out of these indicators.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Prior analyses posted in TradingView using this model have defined loftier forecasts (see "Related Ideas" links below). However, in the interest of reasonable timeline, use of smaller timeframe submitted to the predictive/forecasting model suggest the following two targets:
1 - TG-Hi = 110.255 - 01 OCT 2014
and
2 - TG-x = 110.639 - 01 OCT 2014.
OUTLOOK:
For these targets to remain valid, the EAGLE range would need to be untouched (i.e.: price may cross but not close below the 108.651 to 108.815 range). Look at a significant bullish entrenchment at Points 1, 3, and 5 belonging to WW, which correspond to significant inflection levels in RSI, where the corresponding Point-1 at 109.365 would possibly impose the strongest resistance.
OVERALL:
Price behavior remains bullish. Model also retains a bullish stance with qualitative targets slightly above the recent structural high achieved at 110.081 yesterday. So far, price has reacted in the ipsi-directional side of the forecast, as it found support off of the Wolfe Waves' Take Profit 1-4 Line. Look for further discreet behaviors in RSI and MACD to confirm or infirm this predictive analysis and forecast.
It will be very interesting to see how the $SPY / $ES behave (i.e.: will it continue to decline, or reverse at their current respective price levels), considering that both have converted the model bias into bearish territories, despite a tight correlation that has existed between $SPY / $ES and $JPY. If anything, this is further proof that a significant bear/bull war is unfolding at these levels.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predicitve Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
------------
Twitter: @4xForecasting
------------
PRICE ROLLS OFF OF WOLFE WAVES COMPLETION:
As forecast, price rolled shortly after hitting the qualitative target @ 109.786, defined last September 12th. As per its nature, this "Qual-Target" defines price reversals or retracements greater than the significant 0.618 Fibonacci reversal value. This significant decline occurred at the Point-5 position of a Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"), where price also found support at this WW's Take-Profit line, defined by the extension of points 1 and 2.
PRICE HOLDS AT WOLFE WAVES' 1-4 PROFIT LINE; BULLS IN FORCE:
As current price nears a significant bullish entrenchment at the 108.651-to-108.815 range, RSI posts a potential Positive Divergence, one that is reminiscent to the 23-25 SEP range, which heralded the rallying in price sending price into its geometric completion of the WW. This RSI signal is a much rarer and very telling indication of an imminent price movement, in contrast to its Bullish Divergence cousin.
RSI TELLS ITS OWN BULL AGAINST BEAR STORY:
Turning the analysis to non-price events, let us consider the RSI at this point, which tells its own bear vs. bull war story.
First, consider the back to back failures at its 70-Line, which occurred in the form of a double-top. This 70-Line failure alone is a signature of RSI, regardless of the double-top formation at that very same level. When you see this, simply cover your long position, as the internal mathematics of RSI indicates that buyers will be too weak to sustain a bullish venture.
Now, looking a the current price action, a similar event is occurring, where RSI retains a bullish stance as it hovers its 40-Line. In effect, RSI indicates that as far as this 4-hour timeframe goes, bulls and bears have stood their respective grounds, and bulls have NOT given up their intention to push further on up. A background MACD reflects a similar conflict, as its histogram has delved in negative territories while its moving average indicator remains above its zero-line - At this point, a net-positive outlook emanates out of these indicators.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Prior analyses posted in TradingView using this model have defined loftier forecasts (see "Related Ideas" links below). However, in the interest of reasonable timeline, use of smaller timeframe submitted to the predictive/forecasting model suggest the following two targets:
1 - TG-Hi = 110.255 - 01 OCT 2014
and
2 - TG-x = 110.639 - 01 OCT 2014.
OUTLOOK:
For these targets to remain valid, the EAGLE range would need to be untouched (i.e.: price may cross but not close below the 108.651 to 108.815 range). Look at a significant bullish entrenchment at Points 1, 3, and 5 belonging to WW, which correspond to significant inflection levels in RSI, where the corresponding Point-1 at 109.365 would possibly impose the strongest resistance.
OVERALL:
Price behavior remains bullish. Model also retains a bullish stance with qualitative targets slightly above the recent structural high achieved at 110.081 yesterday. So far, price has reacted in the ipsi-directional side of the forecast, as it found support off of the Wolfe Waves' Take Profit 1-4 Line. Look for further discreet behaviors in RSI and MACD to confirm or infirm this predictive analysis and forecast.
It will be very interesting to see how the $SPY / $ES behave (i.e.: will it continue to decline, or reverse at their current respective price levels), considering that both have converted the model bias into bearish territories, despite a tight correlation that has existed between $SPY / $ES and $JPY. If anything, this is further proof that a significant bear/bull war is unfolding at these levels.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predicitve Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
------------
Twitter: @4xForecasting
------------
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