PRICE ROLLS OFF OF COMPLETION:
As forecast, price rolled shortly after hitting the qualitative target @ 109.786, defined last September 12th. As per its nature, this "Qual-Target" defines price reversals or retracements greater than the significant 0.618 Fibonacci reversal value. This significant decline occurred at the Point-5 position of a pattern ("WW"), where price also found support at this WW's Take-Profit line, defined by the extension of points 1 and 2.
PRICE HOLDS AT WAVES' 1-4 PROFIT LINE; BULLS IN FORCE:
As current price nears a significant entrenchment at the 108.651-to-108.815 range, posts a potential Positive Divergence, one that is reminiscent to the 23-25 SEP range, which heralded the rallying in price sending price into its geometric completion of the WW. This signal is a much rarer and very telling indication of an imminent price movement, in contrast to its cousin.
TELLS ITS OWN AGAINST STORY:
Turning the analysis to non-price events, let us consider the at this point, which tells its own vs. war story.
First, consider the back to back failures at its 70-Line, which occurred in the form of a double-top. This 70-Line failure alone is a signature of , regardless of the double-top formation at that very same level. When you see this, simply cover your long position, as the internal mathematics of indicates that buyers will be too weak to sustain a venture.
Now, looking a the current price action, a similar event is occurring, where retains a stance as it hovers its 40-Line. In effect, indicates that as far as this 4-hour timeframe goes, bulls and bears have stood their respective grounds, and bulls have NOT given up their intention to push further on up. A background reflects a similar conflict, as its histogram has delved in negative territories while its moving average indicator remains above its zero-line - At this point, a net-positive outlook emanates out of these indicators.
Prior analyses posted in TradingView using this model have defined loftier forecasts (see "Related Ideas" links below). However, in the interest of reasonable timeline, use of smaller timeframe submitted to the predictive/forecasting model suggest the following two targets:
1 - TG-Hi = 110.255 - 01 OCT 2014
2 - TG-x = 110.639 - 01 OCT 2014.
For these targets to remain valid, the EAGLE range would need to be untouched (i.e.: price may cross but not close below the 108.651 to 108.815 range). Look at a significant entrenchment at Points 1, 3, and 5 belonging to WW, which correspond to significant inflection levels in , where the corresponding Point-1 at 109.365 would possibly impose the strongest resistance.
Price behavior remains . Model also retains a stance with qualitative targets slightly above the recent structural high achieved at 110.081 yesterday. So far, price has reacted in the ipsi-directional side of the forecast, as it found support off of the Waves' Take Profit 1-4 Line. Look for further discreet behaviors in and to confirm or infirm this predictive analysis and forecast.
It will be very interesting to see how the $SPY / $ES behave (i.e.: will it continue to decline, or reverse at their current respective price levels), considering that both have converted the model bias into territories, despite a tight correlation that has existed between $SPY / $ES and $JPY. If anything, this is further proof that a significant bear/bull war is unfolding at these levels.
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1 - An internal structure arranged such that internal waves move in a 3-3-5 fashion. This would allow price to offer a succession of COR-COR-IMP moves, which the first COR identifiable as it moves AGAINST the prevailing trend.
2 - Wave-B would exceed the origin of Wave-A, and reverse into Wave-C, which would exceed the other end, or termination point of Wave-A (Waves A and C would thus move in the same direction to one another, but move against the major trend).
So far, the chart that @resurrector007 submitted suggest that the last three moves have submitted themselves to that internal rule (COR-COR- ...) and that a last IMP would be required, with an ending exceeding the origin of Wave-A.
So far, all bets are, but the COR-COR-IMP is close to being a reality.
Feel free to post your own chart and point definition, to illustrate what you are seeing.
1 - The Elliott Wave's Expanded Flat is definitely an attractive proposition here, and one to keep under the elbow if and once price fails the current bullish outlook. Both $SPX and $#ES have turned bearish, and I am not familiar enough with their historical correlation in terms of which of them leads the other. So, if $ES is the leader, then $USDJPY will fall. If $USDJPY leads - which I am suggesting it might, based on its underlying bullish resiliency per indicators - then a rallying will occur, leaving many traders and investors holding the bag.
2 - The expanding triangle can be considered in one of two ways:
-- a) In its pure geometry, it is approximating the "speakerphone" outline, so that the outer contours are consistent with that geometry, and may call for the rallying you have delineated in the red arrow.
-- b) In its skeletal structure (i.e.: the internal waves), some Elliotician might contest that while Wave-1 is a corrective wave ("COR"), so would all other internal waves. I see that Wave-2 may be construed as an impulsive wave ("IMP"). I agree with the internal of Wave-3, as a complex zig-zag ("ZZ") can take on a 5-3-5 internal move as it progresses with a IMP-COR-IMP structure. Then, again, as with the case of Wave-2, here Wave-4 is failing to deliver a COR structure, as it seems to have taken on a IMP internal structure instead - Agreeing that all of this may become arguable with much more astute Elliotician out there, as I read the waves without such pretense.
Now, looking still at that same chart where the Expanding Triangle is defined, I would perhaps look to define some significance straight from the Point-3 defined in BLUE. Its subsequent move into Wave-4 looks to be a ZZ, whereas the following Wave-1 carries that ZZ pattern forward, thus defining a larger geometry approximating a Wolfe Waves pattern, or simply an Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal, perhaps.
I hope this makes sense. I very much appreciate your input here.
Here is a refined lower target (original is TG = 108.677), as price action continues to detail an Elliott Wave's Expanded Flat, which by definition would seek completion BELOW the termination of Point-A.
Overlaid is the point-definition of a Bullish Shart (greyed-in points are "ZERO-X-A-B-C"), which also shares the same lower completion point expectation as the EW's Expanded Flat.
A reversal above 108.88 could possibly upset this development, however, at this point, we are still expecting a significant Wave-4 development, as it should help carry price action across the current overhead bearish trendline (PURPLE dashed line) - Elliott Wave points have been left out for clarity sake - See H1 chart below:
Overall, predictive/forecasting model defined a lower value from which a correction might occur. This value is also supported by the combined pattern development of an Elliott Wave's Expanded Flat and a Scott Carney's Bullish Shark. If and once this lower qualitative-low target at 107.941 is reached, then expect a relief rallying in price to a minimum of 50% and a potential maximum of 0.618 from this current bearish impulsive swing, thus bringing price back to Point-A of the Shark, which is usual to witness when A Shark rolls into a 5-0 Pattern and completes at its own internal Point-A.
Two days ago, we were looking for the development of a Shark at its Fibonacci extended depth of 1.131. This was first supported by a predictive/forecasting model which had defined the following bearish target on October 02nd:
- TG-Lo = 107.941- 02 OCT 2014
Following is a frame by frame evolution of the trade, simply using the charts that were already used for earlier discussions:
In the last chart (today's chart), it is obvious that the pattern had exceeded its minimal 50% retracement of its bearish swing, as it went on to define Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern, which is an expected geometric development following a Scott Carney's Shark completion.
There was a significant failure of the model, as this Shark completed a very short distance ahead of the model's TG-Lo at 107.941. Perhaps fronting this trade would have allowed the aggressive trader to take on a long position, whereas a more conservative trader might have entered at the completion of an internal impulse's Wave-1, although it left very little time to do so.
Interestingly. price rallied to its highest internal Fibonacci level, at 0.886. At this point, the question remains whether price will carve lower lows or surpass the recent high. The following larger frame was posted earlier than the current chart, and indicated the completion of a greater geometric system in a Wolfe Wave. Here, the loftier 109.786 target was attained as per forecast, however, on a pure geometric basis, the 5-prime (5') point remains unanswered, offering a conundrum here, as one has to answer whether better becomes the enemy of good, as the 5-prime is not quite validated - See WEEKLY chart:
Setting our mind's eyes back to the 4-Hour chart (see below), we now have to ponder on what sort of geometry is unfolding. In that chart, all targets have been hit, except the "TG-Hi = 110.255 - 01 OCT 2014". This level would certainly respond to the WEEKLY's demand for a 5-prime completion. However, the model has signaled a nascent bearish market force, which if sustained, would make that target another near-miss.
I would recommend the structural trader to keep an eye on new structural definitions, whether in the carving of higher highs or lower-lows. When price remains relatively tight in such a vice-grip like range, internal wave counts, indicator signaling and structural analysis might offer the earliest concert of directional clues, provided that they have been tested as reliable indications.
A simple RSI interpretation here will tell you that bears are being favored, and the corresponding levels where yellow and red arrows are located will define the strong and strongest levels of overhead resistance, respectively, if price were to rise to them.
From "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" and "e-Mini" chatrooms
- Link to e-Mini chatroom: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#Fu3tMkKy660WGNhU
$ES-M15 vs. $JPY-M15:
Here again, looking at the Yen and e-mini SP500 in 15-minute chart - Several observations:
1 - Following a protracted start of a bearish swing, $JPY rallied to slightly higher than 38.2-Fib level as it dipped into a smaller geometry (potentially a small Elliott Wave Expanded Flat (one may perceive the small 3-3-5 internals).
This reactive rally would be considered a smaller-degree 4th wave.
Price went on to decline further to a lower level at 107.741, and reversed to the current position.
Note how the symmetry in the current smaller rally repeats the height that was achieved by the first reactive rally.
In a pattern parlance, this would represent a symmetrical AB=CD pattern (not to confuse with a One2One pattern, where the angles of the rallies would be leaning backwards instead).
Note that the height of the first bearish swing, represented by the letter A, and in which the 0.382-Fibonacci retracement help provide the measure of retracement for not only the first but also the second rally (current position), was also further used to represent the internal bearish swing between the two rallies, represented by the square A".
In other words, there is an important geometric tempo that is maintained here, which is not too dissimilar from the Euclidean Module which I used to use in the past to forecast extent of swings.
On a side note, I have decided to make note of the heights B (the distance between the two 38.2-Fib retracements), as well as C = 1.000-0.382 = 0.618) and D = 0.618.
I expect that these may serve as further module in the price action ahead, or perhaps not at all.
In any case, these are internal measures that are immediately available and worth using, much like a broken branched used as a walking stick down an uncertain trail.
Now, off to the $ES-M15:
Here, we were rather successful in calling 1925.25 as a significant level.
See the recent predictive analysis/forecasting done today to review the frame by frame evolution of as it moved towards this target.
A 'worst-case scenario" was built in as well, which could be used as a stop-loss or a reason for a partial entry.
However, it appear that this was not necessary so far.
Going forward, I would look at price action in the $USDJPY to offer some guidance as to the level where price in $ES might turn around.
More specifically, the levels defined in $JPY are 109.222, which would negate the running flad assumption; 107.741, which we tell me that price is likely to move on down further with or without a completed geometry above; and 108.641, which is the level I would like to see remain intact, as price nears it, but not cross it, so as to maintain a running flat valid.
Hence, a reversal in $JPY at that level should direct the trader's mind's eyes to wave counts in $ES.
The structural levels in $ES were defined as 1939.75, 1944, 75 and 1050.50.
However, if price were to near 1964, or even surpass 1971, I would have to consider higher timeframe, where the interference would probable originate.
Look for a near-lock-step price action between $USDJPY and $ES. It is not always clear to see whcich one may precede the other, but so far, $JPY has led the near-synchronous moves, at time with price ranges far wider than those provided iby $ES in response, and at time, moving in opposite direction, but never to a level that would reach a significant Fibonacci difference in their range differential.
To answer your question, indeed, a pinbar, doji, or a relatively large bar opening at the low then reversing towards the low reflects a sure sign of either testing a potential future level, or simply and most commonly a sign of repulsion at that level, where large players may have lined up sell orders.
From the INATITUTIONAL activity, I can tell you that there are currently TWO active LONG traders (long-term), and TWO L.O. to go long (short-term). Therefore, the outlook from a bank standpoint is to remain long ... This is all that I am allowed to reveal. Still, it's pretty telling of the bullish outlook for now.
Now, this is not to say that an interim decline is not in order, or even that these banks are wrong, but it is worth noting what institutional tailwind is pushing this pair forth.
From my predictive/forecasting mode, I can say that several indicators have called for a reversal. The chart alone indicates that a top was reached, and a recent posting of the USDollar idex (a basket of currencies pitted against the USD) shows a TG-Hi has been attained. Still, here too, price has straddled that target, and reversal is expected.
If no reversal occurs, it means that the timeframe in consideration will need to be ignored and I would need to look at a higher timeframe, where larger players are able to interfere. Here, this would be a no brainer to say that #BOJ has been diluting its currency, but I would have expected a temporary respite at the very least. Instead, price has kept on creeping up, like volcanic bile up Gozilla's esophagus.
A little bearish burp would do. Waiting for it.