USDJPY has a strong corelation with S&P500 , so I always analyse S&P500 prior to analyse USDJPY .
I had my own analysis of S&P500 here:
I choose the trend of S&P500 is downtrend, so the trend of U/J next week would be downtrend.
No major US economic data is released next week, all eyes head to BoJ Meeting. This is the main event which affects on U/J next week.
However, I don't put much my faith in this event. Why do we over expect about this event ?. what do we expect form BoJ while everything is on the right road : Japan economy is recover very well, CPI gradually reaches 2% target, Nikkei225 rally and export increases.
We think nothing new in this BoJ Meeting, they will keep unchanged and keep going their stimulus.
This level of USDJPY now is not too low : enough high to BoJ don't have more action.
Hence, we think U/J will correct a little bit : the problem is WHERE ?.
103.80 level now is not a strong support cause it was broken two times last week.
U/J has a level to test now:
-23.6% Fib retracement :103.36
I open a position:
- SELL USDJPY at current price.
Take profit at 103.36. 87 pips.
Stop Loss at: 104. 77 pips.
To safe : stop loss at 104.10 : 87 pips.