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$USDJPY Nears Completion of Geo's Point-4 | $JPY #yen #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
2643 12 40
10 months ago
SYNOPSIS:

snapshot


GEO             ANALYSIS:

Geo             demands a set of internal geometric             rules that have been met so far:

1 - The 1-2 Line forms a simple reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, or a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag (ZZ): Here, the 04-1995 to 08-1998 span offers a) An internal ab = cd correction and b) a near-perfect symmetry of this geometric             reciprocity.

2 - The 2-3 Line is the most complex of all internals, typically a complex ZZ: Here, the 08-1998 to 10-2011 illustrates a more perfect ab = cd geometry, compared to that formed by the 1-2 Line.

3 - The 3-4 Line is most often the simplest of all internal geometries, as ilustrated in this case.

4 - Pending here is the 4-5 Line, which is most often as simple a geometric             development as that of the 3-4 Line. Therefore expect a large ZZ as the most common geometric             event.

Looking at the overall geometric             growth, the internals are a probable series of four internal legs, expressed rhythmically as 3-3-3-3.



STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS:

Relative to the Geo             , price remains bound to three distinct borders - One dynamic and two static:

1 - DYNAMIC BORDER: The 2-4 Line:
The 2-4 Line defines the upper border of the Geo             . From a trading standpoint and using Fibonacci ranges, consider the possibility of price rallying up to 0.786-Fibonacci relative to the 116.082/125.856 range, as this would bring price to the vicinity of the 2-4 Line.

2 - STATIC BORDER:
As just discussed, the 116.082/125.856 range are significant low/high points, respectively, which have tethered price action over the past 8 monthly bars.

Whereas a Break Across/Close Across ("BACA") the 116.082 Line would open the floor to bears, similarly, a BACA > 125.856 would likely remain capped by the "tunneling" effect of the 1-4 Line.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The model suggest an imminent completion of the rally that occurred over the 11-2010 to 06-2015 range, which defined the 3-4 Line. Using the structural analysis above, the most prudent stance would be to wait for a confirmation of the BACA < 116.082 level to give further credence to a reversal bearish confirmation.

While the line defined as "WL = 70.946 - 17 JAN 2016" represents an ultimate low, intermediate bearish targets (both quantitative and qualitative) will be published once price marches more definitively outside of that 116.082/125.856 range. Again, this is the most prudent stance to adopt at this point, as the market comes to the complete realization of a probable downturn.


OVERALL:

Bearish outlook. Consider the combination of market geometries, structural analysis and the bearish bias of the Predictive/Forecasting Model as probable cause for an imminent reversal. A conversion of the 116.082 line from support to resistance would offer the most conservative strategy, as one continues to ponder the strength and resiliency of the 116.082 floor.

I will now use this thread to post all future $JPY and JPY-related crosses.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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10 months ago
Comment: ADDENDUM - Fundamental note:

From a fundamental stand-point, the $USDJPY is often compared to the S&P-500. In light of recent bearish market accents, one should consider keeping both under the elbow - Feel free to look at prior analyses offered in these charts.

One market analyst commentaries I follow closely are those of Mr. Ashraf Laidi - His recent chart point to a resurgence in net Long $JPY investors, and this might be the impetus bearing down on the $USDJPY. Mr. Ashraf Laidi's comments flow freely on Tweeter under the @alaidi handle. For a more elaborate education on Forex, market flow analysis and a general appreciation of intermarket analysis, consider his book, I highly recommend it - Here is the Amazon link:

"Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets" by Ashraf Laidi:
- http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Trading-Intermarket-Analysis-Shifting/dp/0470226234

Enjoy this great read.

Best,


David Alcindor
7 months ago
Comment: 22 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As indicated by the dashed forecast line, price will continue to consolidate at the 110.660. Any retracement is expected to remain limited, with forecast still eyeing decline - A 0.618 retracement from historical high to recent low is probable, whereas new all-time highs remain improbable
snapshot


OVERALL: No change in outlook, as the overall forecast remains bearish, as shown in original chart.

Best,

David Alcindor
5 months ago
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to bearish forecast ... Interim reactive rallies are to be expected, but structurally, sequences of lower lows and lower highs should fashion the overall price action:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Chartistry PRO
10 months ago
This is great TA...as always.
+1 Reply
Greatly appreciate the book recommendation. It already is a task in itself maneuvering through the disinformation upon which the great network stands. Again, if there are other books you deem valuable please do recommend them for those who do not fear the written word. As always, thank you for the effort.

Regards,
+1 Reply
abail
10 months ago
David what does WL stand for?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO abail
10 months ago
Hello @abail - WL refers to the "Watch Line" ... Not a target. Just a level which if attained should prompt moving the analysis at a higher timeframe level ... In the Monthly timeframe, it has less of a relevance than at M15, H1, H5 and daily level.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
abail 4xForecaster
10 months ago
thank you David. Keep up the good work.
Reply
jessilivermore
10 months ago
This analysis doesn't hold water because the previous breakdown in USD JPY occured out of triangle and ended in diagonal triangle , which explained the meteoric rise in USD JPY. Hope it helps
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO jessilivermore
10 months ago
@jessilivermore - I do not use the classic geometries in the way you are referring, but I appreciate your input. As a counter argument, I would instead turn to Elliott Wave morphologies to argue that, perhaps, a higher-high relative to Point-4 remains possible, but increasingly dimly so ... Perhaps a truncation.

Aside from my prop geometries and prop predictive/forecasting model I use, there is little less I trust or use, except for Elliott Waves.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ananora23 PRO
10 months ago
How about your take on a Yen cross like EJ?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ananora23
10 months ago
Hello @ananora23 , I just posted a new chart in the update thread of $EURJPY ... Nothing has changed: Bearish targets remain intact and in force - David
+1 Reply
ChetanFX
7 months ago
Hi David can you please give us an update on this pair?
Reply
ChetanFX
7 months ago
Can you please post it in lower time frame?
Reply
crncy PRO
10 days ago
still valid?
Reply
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