$USDJPY Nears Completion of Geo's Point-4 | $JPY #yen #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
2841 12 45


GEO             ANALYSIS:

Geo             demands a set of internal geometric             rules that have been met so far:

1 - The 1-2 Line forms a simple reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, or a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag (ZZ): Here, the 04-1995 to 08-1998 span offers a) An internal ab = cd correction and b) a near-perfect symmetry of this geometric             reciprocity.

2 - The 2-3 Line is the most complex of all internals, typically a complex ZZ: Here, the 08-1998 to 10-2011 illustrates a more perfect ab = cd geometry, compared to that formed by the 1-2 Line.

3 - The 3-4 Line is most often the simplest of all internal geometries, as ilustrated in this case.

4 - Pending here is the 4-5 Line, which is most often as simple a geometric             development as that of the 3-4 Line. Therefore expect a large ZZ as the most common geometric             event.

Looking at the overall geometric             growth, the internals are a probable series of four internal legs, expressed rhythmically as 3-3-3-3.


Relative to the Geo             , price remains bound to three distinct borders - One dynamic and two static:

1 - DYNAMIC BORDER: The 2-4 Line:
The 2-4 Line defines the upper border of the Geo             . From a trading standpoint and using Fibonacci ranges, consider the possibility of price rallying up to 0.786-Fibonacci relative to the 116.082/125.856 range, as this would bring price to the vicinity of the 2-4 Line.

As just discussed, the 116.082/125.856 range are significant low/high points, respectively, which have tethered price action over the past 8 monthly bars.

Whereas a Break Across/Close Across ("BACA") the 116.082 Line would open the floor to bears, similarly, a BACA > 125.856 would likely remain capped by the "tunneling" effect of the 1-4 Line.


The model suggest an imminent completion of the rally that occurred over the 11-2010 to 06-2015 range, which defined the 3-4 Line. Using the structural analysis above, the most prudent stance would be to wait for a confirmation of the BACA < 116.082 level to give further credence to a reversal bearish confirmation.

While the line defined as "WL = 70.946 - 17 JAN 2016" represents an ultimate low, intermediate bearish targets (both quantitative and qualitative) will be published once price marches more definitively outside of that 116.082/125.856 range. Again, this is the most prudent stance to adopt at this point, as the market comes to the complete realization of a probable downturn.


Bearish outlook. Consider the combination of market geometries, structural analysis and the bearish bias of the Predictive/Forecasting Model as probable cause for an imminent reversal. A conversion of the 116.082 line from support to resistance would offer the most conservative strategy, as one continues to ponder the strength and resiliency of the 116.082 floor.

I will now use this thread to post all future $JPY and JPY-related crosses.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xfForecast
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: 4xForecaster
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Comment: ADDENDUM - Fundamental note:

From a fundamental stand-point, the $USDJPY is often compared to the S&P-500. In light of recent bearish market accents, one should consider keeping both under the elbow - Feel free to look at prior analyses offered in these charts.

One market analyst commentaries I follow closely are those of Mr. Ashraf Laidi - His recent chart point to a resurgence in net Long $JPY investors, and this might be the impetus bearing down on the $USDJPY. Mr. Ashraf Laidi's comments flow freely on Tweeter under the @alaidi handle. For a more elaborate education on Forex, market flow analysis and a general appreciation of intermarket analysis, consider his book, I highly recommend it - Here is the Amazon link:

"Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets" by Ashraf Laidi:
- http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Trading-Intermarket-Analysis-Shifting/dp/0470226234

Enjoy this great read.


David Alcindor
Comment: 22 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As indicated by the dashed forecast line, price will continue to consolidate at the 110.660. Any retracement is expected to remain limited, with forecast still eyeing decline - A 0.618 retracement from historical high to recent low is probable, whereas new all-time highs remain improbable

OVERALL: No change in outlook, as the overall forecast remains bearish, as shown in original chart.


David Alcindor
Comment: 20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to bearish forecast ... Interim reactive rallies are to be expected, but structurally, sequences of lower lows and lower highs should fashion the overall price action:



David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
still valid?
Can you please post it in lower time frame?
Hi David can you please give us an update on this pair?
How about your take on a Yen cross like EJ?
+1 Reply
Hello @ananora23 , I just posted a new chart in the update thread of $EURJPY ... Nothing has changed: Bearish targets remain intact and in force - David
+1 Reply
This analysis doesn't hold water because the previous breakdown in USD JPY occured out of triangle and ended in diagonal triangle , which explained the meteoric rise in USD JPY. Hope it helps
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO jessilivermore
@jessilivermore - I do not use the classic geometries in the way you are referring, but I appreciate your input. As a counter argument, I would instead turn to Elliott Wave morphologies to argue that, perhaps, a higher-high relative to Point-4 remains possible, but increasingly dimly so ... Perhaps a truncation.

Aside from my prop geometries and prop predictive/forecasting model I use, there is little less I trust or use, except for Elliott Waves.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
David what does WL stand for?
+1 Reply
Hello @abail - WL refers to the "Watch Line" ... Not a target. Just a level which if attained should prompt moving the analysis at a higher timeframe level ... In the Monthly timeframe, it has less of a relevance than at M15, H1, H5 and daily level.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
abail 4xForecaster
thank you David. Keep up the good work.
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