Major Violation of Long trend

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
100 0 3
UJ was choppy and sloppy all week making it very difficult to trade. On top that at the end of the week it sliced through several layers of support like a hot knife through butter. The significant level it violated was the 61.8% level of the fib long that has provided several long's in this uptrend including our initial bounce this month at 102.90 area. This violation signals the end of the longer term uptrend and that sellers are in control.

I am looking for a retrace back up into the 103.70 area which I will sell into given the right price action. FOMC this week might change things. For now I am looking for shorts. Despite the large size of the potential up move I will not be looking to trade it as the market is being aggressively offered and could run into a heavy offer well before my predicted area.

The carry trade is crowded and the exit is way down at the huge liquidity pocket at 100-98 area and we could sell straight down into it before the market finds any kind of bid. The Nov POC is down in the 100 area could provide some support. Overall I will be very cautious trading this one as it could be violent and ugly with lots of whipsawing.

Market Profile: Notice the large liquidity pocket below us. It will be a magnet for sellers and will likely bring in enough buyers to stabilize price action a bit.
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