I am looking for a retrace back up into the 103.70 area which I will sell into given the right price action. FOMC this week might change things. For now I am looking for shorts. Despite the large size of the potential up move I will not be looking to trade it as the market is being aggressively offered and could run into a heavy offer well before my predicted area.
The carry trade is crowded and the exit is way down at the huge liquidity pocket at 100-98 area and we could sell straight down into it before the market finds any kind of bid. The Nov is down in the 100 area could provide some support. Overall I will be very cautious trading this one as it could be violent and ugly with lots of whipsawing.
Market Profile: http://gyazo.com/bbb7e5cd7bffb59a517ddeafd09cb301 Notice the large liquidity pocket below us. It will be a magnet for sellers and will likely bring in enough buyers to stabilize price action a bit.