The USDJPY bearish down from 112.00 to 108.00 and based on price stability of short term target zone the pair was expected to bearish down to 117.00. However, the technical chart indicates for the pair turned and defended at 108.00 and initiate to bullish. It was assumed for the pair to revisit the 112.00 and may break that level for short term price stability 5 %. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise the interest rate in the future driven by expected inflation risk to upside risk. Thus, the expectation for time series interest rate differential based currency band to align and re-align to upward was rationale.
HOWEVER, based on the U-shape band of time series currency band, the global marcro directional price of the USDJPY to downward/bearish. The bearish price trend also indicated by the harmonized currency band to downward/bearish. The bearish directional price still interior the policy of 5% and 10% price stability. Therefore, the technical chart directional price not to match the U-shape band macro directional price and lead to the conclusion of mixed price trend indication.
At current mixed directional price trends by the technical chart and the U-shape band likely better to trade the USDJPY by "daily high/low" and "interdays high/low". By technical charting to indicate for "daily low/high" and "interdays low/high" and the U-shape band to indicate for "daily high/low" and "interdays high/low".
BUT, should the technical chart directional price already in parallel to the U-shape band directional price then the risk of trade near to zero by trading the pair in parallel to the harmonized price trends. THUS, harmonized directional price by technical chart and by U-shape band is the lowest risk to trade in the market. At such condition, both larget traders and dealers are at the same directional of trading.
@raovida, I am not sure if the pair will visit 110.80 after visiting 107.00. This can only to be known if and when the daily high/low and interdays high/low at 107.00 to align and re-align to upward. However, I am pessimistic now based on U-shape band. Thus, I decided to trade for daily high/low for this pair temporary.
Johanes
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@Johanes, the new equations I received for measuring the prices from FRB will assist me not to make any mistake anymore on projection and trade. The harmonized currency band was the latest version adopted by Fed and G-8 central banks. I run dor daily trade with very successful, unbelievable.