Tom_Killick

USDJPY cycles: Losing Previous Strength

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
169 0 4
Friends,

USDJPY             has been trading along a support trendline I have drawn. But there is a lot more to this trade than once realised!

I discovered some other interesting things!. I discovered 3 "cycles", which is terms of target and time, were very, very interesting.

Cycle 1- Move began, retraced and hit 1.786 extension. This took 20 days and 4 hours to complete.
Cycle 2- Move began, retraced and hit 1.786 extension, This took 20 days and 4 hours to complete again! completely harmonic with cycle 1.
Cycle 3- Move began, retraced and hit 1.786 extension, This took 13 days and 12 hours. And then cycle did not repeat.

Since cycle 3 has completed, There has been no advance anything like that of the previous cycles, and the price has been ranging around the cycle 3 completion area for a long time. The trend has made no real progress and is ranging towards the trend line.

We've also got a rounded top now, suggesting downside movement. Obviously a trend line break means you'd short this market, but these time cycles and observations mean if the trend line does now break, we have the extra validation of the cycle break AND the rounded top to validate and satisfy our trading decision. And probably satisfy our restless minds that we've made the right decision here!

All the best
Tom


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