30 of Sept: Last daily bar is a counterattack bullish candle line. I believe it neurtralised a bit the downtrend, though downward momentum still exists as seen through EMA8 cross below EMA50. The critical region is the Support Line at the region 96.30 +- 0.20
Given the price remains above that level its likely to be bullish in the medium term.
Awaiting for a clearer long scenario.
1st Oct Daily bar bias: neutral - its probably best looking into smaller timeframes to decide the direction
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Coming back to this analysis - It is clear now how bulls gained control after the break of the downward trend line. The price tested the line at 96.93 in Oct 2013, after which the bulls took over and took the price to 105 in Dec13, to 121 in Dec14, peaking at 125 in June15, followed by a sell-off back to 100 levels.
Since 2017 the market has been in a volatile trading range between 104 and 114.
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atrader
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3rd of Oct end of day: a longed legged doji. A clear sign it bounced at the support at the 97 region. Whether it will retest the support on again is uncertain but seing higher highs on smaller timeframes as it approaches the support could push traders into going long.
4th of Oct Daily bar bias: neutral. Still being below the moving averages and trendline just keeps the momentum downards however the last daily bar was an indecision bar and on Friday the bulls could take control. Either way, its probably worth giving it a shot and joining the bulls tomorrow as the reward to risk ratio is high. Though I feel the probability of success is 50 50%. Must be careful in case there are new lows.
atrader
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2nd of Oct end of day: a bear candle nearing the support. It is likely to see a bounce on Thursday or Friday.
3rd of Oct Daily bar bias: neutral but expecting new lows. I would like to be 'proved right' saying long but there is no confirmation other that just saying its at an Oversold region. Would wait to see if the support at 97 region will hold if tested and look into consider going long.
atrader
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1 of Oct end of day: the bull vs bear signals ended up giving a 'high wave candleline'; i can interpret this as a temporary indesision and . The next trading day will probably give an answer to the direction
2nd Oct Daily bar bias: slight long bias unless the price breaks the lows of the prior daily bar.
If the daily breaks above prior bar highs, then it could rally.
If I go long (on a smaller timeframe), I shall use tight stoplosses as a big selloff could also be possible
4th of Oct Daily bar bias: neutral. Still being below the moving averages and trendline just keeps the momentum downards however the last daily bar was an indecision bar and on Friday the bulls could take control. Either way, its probably worth giving it a shot and joining the bulls tomorrow as the reward to risk ratio is high. Though I feel the probability of success is 50 50%. Must be careful in case there are new lows.