UJ Seasonality

A seasonal recurring event for UJ is for the USD to drop substantially against the JPY and this year I expected it to happen in April. GBP has outperformed USD for the passed 6 years and USD was slowly losing strength from January onwards this year. I predicted that March would be the start of the UJ drop because it is also financial year end for BOJ and demand for JPY increases as corporations exchange their incoming receivables for Japanese Yen.

Today the UJ seasonality has started. As you can see on the chart it will most likely fall over the course of a few weeks to a few months. On the chart it ends on December 17. The timing might be different this year as for every season there are new variables and values. This year we had the raging bull from mid April onwards which has tremendously delayed the process. It would not surprise me if the bull shows up again to disturb this process.

This analysis is focussed on the time it takes for USD to reverse as marked with time ranges for each season on this chart. Normally a reversal of the USD takes around 12 weeks from last steep incline to first steep drop after that to complete. This year I expect a delay of at least 2 weeks for the reversal, which was estimated with a delay factor derived from the time it took to reach halfway the reversal.

Comment:

This year (2018) signals for the opening bell started in August but other signals came early as April. Nevertheless speculation has hold of this process by specifically targeting GBP, EUR & CHF at London open and other crucial times where it was likely to kick off. The person or entity behind the USD bull rages apparently only had one goal, to prevent the USD from devaluing too early....

Trade active:

Let's wait this last bull run or let's just push down for once actually.

Trade active:

Again stronger signals that USD devaluation is about to start.

Trade active:

Postponed for more than a year. Will explain one day what I have seen and what I think. Get ready peeps, big move coming now.

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Another cycle, another round..