OANDA:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
A seasonal recurring event for UJ is for the USD to drop substantially against the JPY and this year I expected it to happen in April. GBP has outperformed USD for the passed 6 years and USD was slowly losing strength from January onwards this year. I predicted that March would be the start of the UJ drop because it is also financial year end for BOJ and demand for JPY increases as corporations exchange their incoming receivables for Japanese Yen .

Today the UJ seasonality has started. As you can see on the chart it will most likely fall over the course of a few weeks to a few months. On the chart it ends on December 17. The timing might be different this year as for every season there are new variables and values. This year we had the raging bull from mid April onwards which has tremendously delayed the process. It would not surprise me if the bull shows up again to disturb this process.

This analysis is focussed on the time it takes for USD to reverse as marked with time ranges for each season on this chart. Normally a reversal of the USD takes around 12 weeks from last steep incline to first steep drop after that to complete. This year I expect a delay of at least 2 weeks for the reversal, which was estimated with a delay factor derived from the time it took to reach halfway the reversal.
Comment: This year (2018) signals for the opening bell started in August but other signals came early as April. Nevertheless speculation has hold of this process by specifically targeting GBP, EUR & CHF at London open and other crucial times where it was likely to kick off. The person or entity behind the USD bull rages apparently only had one goal, to prevent the USD from devaluing too early....
Trade active: Let's wait this last bull run or let's just push down for once actually.
Trade active: Again stronger signals that USD devaluation is about to start.

Related Ideas

and how do you integrate in your analysis the fact that simply japan is devaluating its currency. there is no more seasonality or whatsoever to rely on, usdjpy rises just because yen is devaluated because of trade war.... period. and you can do nothing against that ... or at least the only logical thing to do is not to be short on usdjpy or betting on a potential drop of usdjpy in a short or even mid term. don't you think ? :o)
Reply
ArnaudKleinveld lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, Actually interesting that you mention both UJ Seasonality and trade wars because that is clashing today as we speak and I guess also the reason why you write this comment. So I understand that you think one nation will simply allow the other to unlimited manipulate price. I don't think they will, hence unbreakable resistance. By manipulating like a madman the USD raging bull has created a kind of deadlock situation where itself not can enter higher levels against others and is risking more to fall as soon another major takes a dive.

The catalyst for this year's UJ Seasonality process was exactly that what you mentioned, namely JPY devaluing as a seasonal activity, and its fall would have launched UJ into orbit, i.e. if USD not would devalue at the same time, and this is exactly an activity of UJ seasonality's process. See JPY weekly and monthly performance for the seasonal devaluation activity.

In a nutshell, this year UJ Seasonality process functioned as a catalyst for JPY Seasonality and as its activity if would devalue USD, so UJ would not have been launched.
Reply
Excellent chart.
Reply
ArnaudKleinveld AlfredoCollado
@AlfredoCollado, Thanks!
Reply
Thank you
Reply
@Volawoot, You're welcome.
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Get Help Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Get Help Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out