Jeuvici
Short

USDJPY Longer term Outlook

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
A bigger picture look of USDJPY             from 2006-now has seen dramatic volatility due to divergences in monetary policy & global outlook, with the JPY correlating to safe haven flows in times of crisis and uncertainty.

From this analysis we can see that from 2006 - 2012:
There was a clear downward channel trending from a high of 124.14 to a low of 75.56.
From 2012 till now, we have seen a clear upward channel trending to a high of 125.85.

Despite looking extremely symmetrical, notice also how the pair broke resistance (indicated by the blue lines) each time before breaking out to higher levels.
However, what's unique this time was not only failure to break higher, but a break beneath this upward channel support.

Throughout the past few years, we saw extended recovery and avoidance of recessions due to Quantitative Easing and other policies by Central Banks. However, businesses and economies go in cycles and this cycle cannot be avoided.

I hence believe this downward breakout is a sign of the beginning of a larger move downwards for the pair, with a target of 110.

I must however disclaim that this year is an important year for Japan, and the BOJ may step in to ease additionally if the strong JPY proves to dampen progress in their economy. This may lead to extended weakness in the JPY. Also note that the current leg down (123.47-116.50) for the USDJPY             has been without significant retracement, so do expect one.

Still, with worries of China and Commodities like oil             , it all points towards additional risk-off sentiment in light of uncertainties about the global economy, where carry trades may continue to unwind and flow back into safe havens like Gold             and JPY.

See also my previous three ideas of USDJPY             and how they played out, in related ideas.

Best of luck to all.
snapshot
H&S pattern to add to this
+1 Reply
olly_price olly_price
I like your fundamental and long-term look into this as well
+1 Reply
Jeuvici olly_price
Agreed.. the neckline will be watched closely!
Reply
ii saw it a while ago. and daily chart channel was also brolen. the weekly broke into a bear and the daily into a bull. i dont know if that could mean a retest on weekly support area
+1 Reply
IInteresting! What a great idea!
+1 Reply
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