1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level.
1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher.
Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
not sure if i misunderstood what you was asking ha
I just see it a little differently.
So closing ALL at 102.9 = The 1 lot at 102.8 was -10pips, the 2 lots at 103.5 was 60pips*2= +120pips and the 4 lots at 103.9 was 100pips*4=400pips, so = -10+120+400= 510pips total profit.
Imo and in my experience the trade wasnt "risky" it was trading probabilities as such. Yes there are times this strategy loses money but more often than not it doesnt and the gains have so far been greater than the losses so i will continue. Thi trade was a tactical play, it wasnt a fundamental view.
Im personally not sure which direction usdjpy will head, for this trade it was irrelevant. IMO gun to my head, i think usdjpy will remain here around 104 for the rest of the year, but im not positioned for this given my conviction is very low.
Hope this helped clear it up