QuantumLogicTrading

SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
SHORT USDJPY:

1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY             has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily.

2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level.

Trading Strategy:

1. Sell USDJPY             at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher.

Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
isaac312 PRO
2 months ago
Thank you for your analysis!!
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djshnizle
2 months ago
I'm in this same trade I am under the impression that PMI spike was a joke.
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QuantumLogicTrading djshnizle
2 months ago
Yes, this trade we add short on a close higher anyway.. impossible to control data!
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alexanderbg91
2 months ago
Do you think that if it passes the 100 day EMA on the daily that there is still any chance for a sell? Where do you think the price could go to if it does go down?

Thanks.
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QuantumLogicTrading alexanderbg91
2 months ago
I think 104 will hold - if we move/ close above here then i think shorts are more risky. But still, statistically, shorts are valid until we see a down day. usdjpy has only see 8 days 8 times, 9 days 4 times and 10 days 2 times in the past 16yrs.
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alexanderbg91 QuantumLogicTrading
2 months ago
It just touched 104.00... do you still think it will hold?
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QuantumLogicTrading alexanderbg91
2 months ago
This strategy is back in the money now and by quite some way
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alexanderbg91 QuantumLogicTrading
2 months ago
Yes, and I'm quite happy about that! I'm thinking that the weekly down trend can continue below the weekly low at 99.
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Rocketman PRO
2 months ago
Maybe reality is not the same....maybe more dynamic?
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QuantumLogicTrading Rocketman
2 months ago
what do you mean? this trade finished on the NFP friday well in the money, if followed as descriped above, the 1 and 2 lot trades out of the money (day 1 and 2) by -3% and the 4 and 8 lot trades 10% closed in the money making net profit around 7%, this was true at the close of the 7th.10.2016 (the first in the money daily close/ green bar - which is the strategy), you can work the pips out manually now to see this is true.

not sure if i misunderstood what you was asking ha
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Rocketman PRO QuantumLogicTrading
2 months ago
I watched you enter short at 102, and I stayed long because multiple banks were stopped out at the level and went long. I couldn't believe that you went short. So, stayed quiet.....because I don't understand this kind of strategy. I am still holding the long, hopefully until 114. I really don't see why USDJPY should fall to 95 like the majority of line chat traders on TV draw on charts like medicine men in mountains. That is the way it is starting to feel to me when I see their posts. I know that you don't do this though. I just don't understand this strategy. It was too risky for me.
I just see it a little differently.
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QuantumLogicTrading Rocketman
2 months ago
I can explain the pips easily so I entered SHORT 1 lot at 102.8, 2 lots at 103.5, 4 lots at 103.9 (which is at the close of each bar in the chart) then on the 7.10.2016 I took profit at the close of the first red bar which was 102.9 (which was the first positive day in the "loop"). So from this its easy to see how much profit was made..

So closing ALL at 102.9 = The 1 lot at 102.8 was -10pips, the 2 lots at 103.5 was 60pips*2= +120pips and the 4 lots at 103.9 was 100pips*4=400pips, so = -10+120+400= 510pips total profit.

Imo and in my experience the trade wasnt "risky" it was trading probabilities as such. Yes there are times this strategy loses money but more often than not it doesnt and the gains have so far been greater than the losses so i will continue. Thi trade was a tactical play, it wasnt a fundamental view.

Im personally not sure which direction usdjpy will head, for this trade it was irrelevant. IMO gun to my head, i think usdjpy will remain here around 104 for the rest of the year, but im not positioned for this given my conviction is very low.

Hope this helped clear it up
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Rocketman PRO QuantumLogicTrading
2 months ago
Yes, it does. Thanks. It is a bit advance or different, and based on probabilities. Very tactical, like a ninja. haha...
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QuantumLogicTrading Rocketman
2 months ago
Haha yeah it is different.. after years in the game, i learnt in order to make money you have to be different, the masses (and the "systems" they use) often dont work.. hence why noone has ever heard of a retail client turning into a hedge fund ha!
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