RalphStPierre

USDJPY study of probabilities

OANDA:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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Although the study is made on a low time frame. I am firm believer in higher time frame projections and believe they are more accurate. Which would be another interesting study.Here is a study in high a probability reversal area made on the 15M TF. Just for an exercise in using high probability reversal areas. Wave rules and guidelines. S/R levels. Harmonic patterns . Candle stick reversal patterns at critical levels. The more factors in convergence in your projection area adds to its probability. This is of course. "IF" we are in a correction on this time frame. For us AO divergence and a close below the 34 EMA and trend line brake is confirmation.
Comment: correction wave confirmed. entered short on confirmation of the correction leg. unfortunately closed the trade before todays news. its enough to question ones
belief in not holding positions during news events. but its what i do. this time tho
it didnt work out. which brings me to think. an addition in my trading journal might include tracking win/loss percentages during news events.maybe. if. i am in a trade
because of my trading system before news anyway..what are the the probabilities of that trade continuing to be successful or failing...trading is a never ending learning process of identifying high probabilities
Better be safe than sorry in closing the trade...Thank you for sharing!!
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