@Gottmann, Hi mate.. nice analysis ..but we have 2 different approaches ..... we trade naked setups where as you are using MA's , volumes related stuff , which are too much complicated stuff for us :) , because looking at your chart 9/10/11 sep candles are same low volume one but still price kept on moving higher 100 pips , were you short on those candles too ..? Price will always move in waves of up and downs and we have decided to not complicate our life with volumes, oscilators etc. for us its fairly simple - price broken above trendline possible long wait for confirmation & corrective structure and then long , if price moves below trendline we have false breakout , again look for corrective structure and confirmation to sell , we dont like waiting for big players to show us volumes to trade :) ............ In any case wonderfull analysis mate... price may continue lower as you said..well done..
Gottmann
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@No-Emotion-Fx, hi pal. I didn't mean to defy you, only to make a point and friendly help. First I want to correct myself, I meant to say "going up too soon" not "going down too soon", but you have understood :)
I was not short on those days, I've opened short on Sept, 17 when: 1. I saw the day before a "hagging man" candle with a high volume (unfortunately there's a bug on the tradingview chart and we can't see); 2. on Sept. 17 a "shooting star" candle was formed with a decent volume; 3. the market knew that next day the FED will lower rates; 4. the price had reached a supply zone and June and July POC areas.
Price moves 70% in consolidation/accumulation/distribution areas (which could be big areas, and you can still make money, I agree), and 30% in trend areas, big ups, and downs.
I don't use oscillators, only Volume, Volume Profile, and 2 EMAs. I do Volume Price Analysis.
PS: you and I may control 0.000000000000000000002% of the game they DO CONTROL the whole game! If you could follow every single Stanley Druckenmiller's trade would you?
AariTech
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@Gottmann, Hi Mate... sorry if it felt otherwise but i didnt meant that way... I was just trying to justify my idea :) .... anyways looks like you were right and price has broken below trendline and we will be looking for short trades too.............you comments on idea are highly appreciated and after all every one learns from these discussions ,... thanks again mate....
Gottmann
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@No-Emotion-Fx, you are good my friend. I truly like your ideas and analysis, I'm always learning too. I really appreciate our conversation and I'm looking forward to exchanging more ideas with you.
AariTech
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@Gottmann, sure mate.. me too... hope next time price will go my way...heheh....
Gottmann
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@No-Emotion-Fx, hehe...follow me and you're going to be fine, just kidding :P
I'm stuck short on USD/CAD based on my same theory, holding loss after loss...
AariTech
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@Gottmann, USDCAD might turn bearish on break below our trendline...daily supported by few moving averages.. but your weekly analysis is good.price is currently retesting trendline after breakout ... so you might be right again.. i should start following you.. hehe
Gottmann
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@No-Emotion-Fx, I know, patience is the name of the game. Do you have any analysis on USD/CAD?
AariTech
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@Gottmann, I dont have any longterm one published... but my view is in chart.. hope it can be of any help..:)