USD/JPY: Technical outlook and review...

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
264 5
Weekly timeframe perspective: From the weekly timeframe , we can clearly see that active buyers have entered the market from within a small weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40.

Daily timeframe perspective: The rebound seen from the minor daily support level at 118.32 on Thursday last week, extended higher yesterday. As long as the buyers can continue with this tempo, we see very little reason why price will not hit the daily supply area coming in at 122.01-121.10.

4hr timeframe perspective: The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the market opened at 119.19, the buyers have been in overall control pushing the market nearly 100 pips north! Consequent to this, price firmly closed above and retested the round number 120.00. For those who read our last report, you may recall that we mentioned should price close above this number, we’ll be heavy buyers from that point on.

So, with the above in mind, we’re going to primarily be spending much of today scouring the lower timeframes for confirmed long entries around the 120.00 number. In the event that a signal is spotted, our first take-profit target will be 120.60, the second, a little higher up at 121.00.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 120.00 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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You are more optimistic than I am. I chalk a lot of this recent 100 pips to A) month end B) quarter end C) Japan FY end. In other words, flows, not breakout or $ trend resumption. Always possible I'm wrong of course. :)
SetagayaGirl SetagayaGirl
We can include 'window dressing' in the mix, too. There are some people who unloaded dollars after the FOMC who are going to want to show that they were long dollars at the end of the quarter. :)
SetagayaGirl SetagayaGirl
Score one for the pessimist. :)
ICmarkets SetagayaGirl
HAHA, Yes, we see it, well done! Did you actually trade this short?

IC markets
Yes, I did. But only 50K face, which is as small as I go. I was not entirely convinced either way, and of course the number might not have been so bad. Primarily, I just did not see the support this past week that often typifies an NFP week. But clearly some air went out of the bid balloon with ADP, plus the holiday.

I still like the long side, too. Maybe some lower 118s, but certainly below that, would attract me. The FOMC is still likely to act this year, I believe, but maybe this measure of doubt that's certainly been inserted here will take DXY below 95.

Just wish I had loaded up on some UST calls about 90 days ago. :)

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