ICmarkets

USD/JPY: Technical outlook and review.

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
211 0 2
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price has recently closed just above the upper limits of a symmetrical triangle formation (121.83/117.43). Assuming that the buyers can hold out above this barrier, further upside could be seen this week up to around the weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe reveals that price is currently being supported by a daily decision-point demand area coming in at 118.32-119.09. This support barrier does not look very stable in our opinion due to the break lower seen on the 17/02/15. In the event that price closes below this area, we’ll likely see renewed selling interest down to a daily demand area positioned at 116.86-117.54.

4hr Timeframe: The USD/JPY             pair opened at 119.04, and after a little hesitation was seen, rallied higher towards a 4hr swap level coming in at 119.35. This has, in our opinion, confirmed price is now range bound between 119.35 and a 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 118.32-118.54. Trading within this range is a viable strategy (tentative buys seen at 118.56, and sells coming in around 119.30) and does indeed offer chance to profit. Nonetheless, we would recommend waiting for confirmation from the lower timeframes before risking your money here, since fakeouts are a common occurrence in consolidative environments such as this. Our team has just reported that they would much prefer to wait for price to break out of this range before trading this pair.

With that in mind, if the market closes above 119.35, this would likely see a prompt retest forcing price up to at least the 120.00 handle. This is something our team would most definitely be interested in taking part in, and in addition to this, it would also offer some confirmation that the recent close above the weekly triangle (see above) was genuine. Conversely, a close below the 4hr decision-point demand area would likely offer shorting opportunities down to at least 117.86. If a break lower does occur, we would patiently wait for a retest before looking for confirmed shorts, as per the green arrows.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 118.56 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.27).

• Sell orders: 119.30 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).


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