USDJPY: before BoJ

Dec 18, 2025

🛠 Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour timeframe, USDJPY is maintaining a strong long-term bullish posture within a large ascending channel. The price has recently found solid support near the SMA 100 and SMA 200 confluence. The critical development will be the breakout above the descending resistance line that has been constraining price action since the November peak. Currently, the pair try to test the horizontal resistance zone around 157.00 – 158.00. A successful consolidation above this area, as indicated by the "Resistance line" breakout, confirms a trend continuation. With the moving averages trending upward and the price remaining in the upper half of the channel, the path of least resistance is toward the channel's upper boundary.

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❗️Trade Parameters (BUY)
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➡️ Entry Point: Buy on a confirmed break of the resistance line (approx. 156.733 – 157.00).

🎯 Take Profit: 161.50 – 162.00 (Upper boundary of the Ascending Channel).

🔴 Stop Loss: Below the recent swing low and SMA support (approx. 155.162).

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.

Dec 18, 2025

Note

🌍 Fundamental Analysis: The Japanese Yen continues to face pressure due to the persistent interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. As we approach the end of 2025, market sentiment remains "risk-on," favoring the carry trade and the US dollar. Unless there is a significant hawkish shift from the BoJ or a sudden flight to safety, the technical structure suggests that bulls will remain in control, aiming for new multi-month highs near the top of the channel.

Dec 19, 2025

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