On 7/21 there was a daily reversal at resistance this was after a strong rally from july's lows @99.98 There was nothing fundamentally driving that really just some good US data at that time but if we look across the Yen pairs we could see Yen weakness. In my opinion there looks to be a shift of risk sentiment in the markets that of course has nothing to do with the BOJ. most of this year we have witnessed a risk off sentiment but if we look at the S&P 500 and other global indexes making all time highs could we be gearing up to shift into a risk on market. Keep in mind that the major 2016 Event risks has passed and investors will be looking to put there money to work, Meaning moving it from the safe haven assets to more riskier higher yielding ones.
I don't know if the Yen bulls are done we very well could see a push back down to 100 but I will be watching for a longer term reversal from these levels and I have a monthly chart that supports my thought of a reversal which I will publish. We could also see some profit taking or consolidation of last weeks move.
- We are just above a 76.4 of last month's low to high.
- Will be watching today's close. If price closes positive then we will have a 40 Hold could be indicative of momentum.
- I will watch for a reversal candle on today's close.
- I will wait for the days close to determining a directional bias for the week