USDJPY NFP Possible Outcomes

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
470 4 4
NFP Potential Scenarios

Market consensus: A number around 185k & Rate unchanged 6.7

**Scenario One: A good number: NFP equals or above 185k AND Rate at or below 6.7. Dollar should rally as that would confirm that December numbers were due to temporarily reasons(weather..)

USDJPY             May extend the upside on dollar strength and improved sentiment and hit 102.85 and 103.40.

**Scenario Two: A disappointing number: below 150k AND Rate at or above 6.7 U.S. Dollar should extend losses.

USDJPY             may resume the recent bearish wave and hit 100.75 support again.

Important Notes:

*I would give more weight to the headline NFP number, less weight to unemployment rate, unless it is a really big change.
*I will avoid a number between 150-185k as it may be a close call, cause hesitation.
*A number less than 50k may trigger risk aversion sentiment again, push the U.S. dollar lower against the JPY but higher.against other currencies
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knee-jerk downside reaction was rethought, probably the the rise in participation rate and drop in unemployment made this report more neutral then negative. Also February's number will be the most important one for the fed decision. I would to wait to see how things settle and where pairs close the trading session today.
wad is actually going on with DOLLARS???
how come? The result is so weak. How come it still rebound back around 102?
113k very weak number, however markets are receiving it as a signal that the federal reserve may pause its tapering. Weak U.S. dollar across the board, especially against high yielders, aud,nzd.... USDJPY dips sharply but rebounds again. I would exit any position and be neutral awaiting how the day ends.
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