dvarrin
Short

USDJPY Bearish Cypher Pattern

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
168 8 1
Sell at point D level. Set stop loss 20 pips above X.

After reaching PT1, set stop loss to breakeven.
I've heard that's the harmonic pattern with the highest success rate, but I'm not sure it is. The problem is that the Shark pattern is very similar, but D is at 88.6% or 113% of XC. To decide between both, we can analyse the CD leg. We look at the first retracement and when it is over, we use the 100%, 127% or 161% extension. Here the 161% extension is at 102.03, so it is more likely a Cypher.
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Kurt0sis dvarrin
Thanks, I'm going to give this some further study also. Do you also know of any rules for time retracements? And maybe we could pitch this pattern to AMP monitor, it's a quite useful service for harmonic pattern screening http://en.ampmonitor.com/amp
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dvarrin Kurt0sis
I tried AMP Monitor for a while. It's quite interesting, and a lot cheaper than FXGroundWorks ;-)

I don't know a lot about time retracement. The only important thing is if the time from B to D is less than 38.2% of the time from X to B, then the pattern has a great chance not to be valid anymore.
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Kurt0sis dvarrin
yeah AMP is good for initial screening. Working on my own MT4 pattern-recognition system actually
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dvarrin Kurt0sis
It must be great to have an indicator like that
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Indeed. Do you know of any stats on this pattern?
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Didn't give a great reversal, but target one was reached ;-)
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Well spotted
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