Fundamentals: - I like the Yen as a safe haven bet for stock investors. I think the Yen is over extended in its fall against the dollar, I suspect this has more upside risk than downside. Thus, I'm shorting the US Dollar against the Yen to implement this idea.
Quarterly: - Top of its implied range.
Monthly: - Largest up month since late 2016. - The last time the market was at this level (2016) it sold off dramatically.
Weekly: - Rising prices on decreasing volume - Overbought (trend line) check stochastic to confirm. - Macd lines have diverged quickly these last few weeks.
Daily: - Looks like we hit a wall with these last couple days, I think this would be a good time to short with calculated risk above these highs with a mental or limit stop.
- I know volume in the forex market isn't really as accurate as it is with centralized exchanges such as stocks, but on the weekly, the tick volume from certain forex brokers (this is Oanda) can still be revealing.
I've been tinkering with my chart settings a little, I have 250 assets on my watch list, so forgive my recent changes if they're unfamiliar, all simple tools, the point is to gain the cleanest objective view possible across all markets, its always a work in progress as im sure it is for you.
Looks on coursw for 130. Do you think this is a strong enough psychological level to put a short in or you reckon it's going to go to 135?
Chad_McDeid
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@tan30913, I was stopped out on the daily on this one relatively quickly as you can see, I have been waiting for some confirmation there before re entering. looks like we might be getting it now. Well "overbought" but its important to remember that we do need some confirmation of a change in bias, stop losses save us in some of these cases, thats technical trading.
Chad_McDeid
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@tan30913, from where we stand, im inclined to say I doubt we'll get to 135.
voipman
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@Chad_McDeid, yeah fair point. I have put a sell order at 128.4 as if it moves back down and breaches this it can make it to the rising channel around 127.40.
Chad_McDeid
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@voipman, I agree, loosely, as a position trader, you could enter small anywhere here and if your willing to risk 1:1 with 300 pips you'll probably nail it. but I like to enter the weekly trends off the daily chart and manage my risk with a little bit tighter of a stop. Hence the reason that now that we've broken the original "top" I was hoping would hold, I'm waiting for a little more confirmation, has just been going up now for weeks nice and steady, this looks to me like brokers eating client money world wide.
Chad_McDeid
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@voipman, check out the monthly, that timeframe on my chart here has that keltner channel fine tuned to the monthly, so the average is 24. so technically were about 10 percent higher than the 2 year average, and were way out of range of the last 12 months.