USDJPY as previously mentioned this week had broken a key technical level that has been aiding in support for the last year. After this break, the market proceeded to sell off by over 500 pips before recovering some of the damage at the end of the week. What I did not mention in that analysis as it was not needed at the time was what else the Key Technical level of 116 was acting as, the neckline of a Pattern that has been forming since very late in 2014. is a reversal pattern, they require a preceding trend, USDJPY has been in a since 2012.
The Measured Objective of this particular reversal pattern is done by calculating the distance between the peak of the head, and the neck line itself. In this case it amounts to very roughly 1000 pips. Coincidentally the moves over the last couple weeks have also amounted to 1000 pips. This puts the measured objective of this move at around 105-106.
The real trade for any pattern does not occur when the break of the neck line happens, it is executed when price returns to the neck line and is properly defended as a retest or power transfer. I mention this because I do not want people to assume that because the neck line is broken that we are instantly going to drop to 105/106 this next week. Is it a possibility? Yes. However it is not likely, the market might be taking time to digest all the events that have transpired over the last couple weeks, consolidating, building power for a move lower.
In 2008, GBPJPY had a picture perfect reversal trade, I want to illustrate that trade below so you can visualize partially what we may be looking for in this trade set up:
The pre-emptive entry occurs when the neck line is tested. The confirmed entry comes after that retest when the strength leading up to the retest breaks. It is also worth noting the amount of time that transpired before the actual trade took place. Over 6 Months. I'm not saying that this USDJPY trade will take that long before executing but it's important to keep in mind. If I had to guess the drop in USDJPY from 116 won't take place until at least March.
Here is another look at what has been transpiring with USDJPY since 2012. We can see the Strength breaking. Likely support is obvious and I've highlighted areas that the market will be looking at as well.
Here is another look at USDJPY only covering the last year, and again not taking into account the Pattern:
I will be looking to sell USDJPY when a retest of the neck line occurs near 116. Confirmed entry will be when the strength leading up to that point breaks. Preferably there is a corrective/consolidation type structure that forms while that happens.
Keep an eye on it everyone. Feel free to comment/like/follow.
1 Hour overview for people thinking that last night's drop was the beginning. Also pay attention to the fact that 114-114.30 like several thought would bring the actual resistance didn't do much...the real resistance will be closer to 116
Sells are possible from here - but a break above blue - gives the necessary confirmation to make a run at 116. I'm not surprised at all that this week hasn't amounted to much on UJ - still 2 days left though