FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
371 2 3
-Fundamental Analysis:

What do we have recent days ?
+ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-fall-for-third-day-on-taper-worries-2013-12-03

Stock falls four days cause of worriness about taper. why ?.
+ FED choose taper -- > Less dollar is injected into market --> Stock fall down because it doesn't receive support from FED stimulus and US dollars be stronger.
+ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-stocks-lower-as-yen-rebound-hurts-japan-2013-12-03
NIKKEI225 retraces greatly after setting peak --> raise JPY.

We must understand that the advance of USDJPY             must be reinforced by NIKKEI225. This is necessary and sufficent conndition.

NIKKEI225 has a strong correlation with US Stock Market . Stock market increase --> NIKKEI225 increases as a result.

US Stock market now need QE3 to rally. If QE3 halt or taper , it will fall down.

So, the condition to FED taper is the US economic data is acceptable.

Now we see a lot of information prove for that.

Today, ADP data is so good. 215K vs 180k consensus
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=b6e67526-7939-4a30-8661-43d5d62d02e7

Thus, I expect US NFP will be good to. If NFP is positive , that is the doping for FED taper next meeting in next weeks.

IF FED taper -- US Stock decrease -- > NIkkei225 decrease -- U/J fall down.

The US economy recovers fast -- > FED have the reason to taper.

This is time for retracement. I think USDJPY             will retrace after soaring new high. It needs to take a rest.

In the long term, I keep my viewpoint . USDJPY             will soar higher to 105 .

In short, all my viewpoints bet on NDP data is positive -- increasing worry about taper -- US Stock fall -- Nikkei225 fall -- USDJPY             fall too.

IF NFP data is negative. I am wrong.

I cannot prevent the worriness of all investors about taper. But I believe that FED will not taper next meeting. They will transfer to next meeting : March. I have the reason for my faith. All FED's memvers have dovish stance, and FED vice president Yallen stance is dovish, very dovish.

-Technical Analysis:
Look at on the chart:
- Price hit 2.618 Fib extension level and bounce back. This level becomes key resistance. Indeed, 2.618 Fib extension is a very strong resistance, to break it, market must provide data which is strong enough to break it. Now I don't see that data.

- Today, price retraces to 23.6% fib retracement I show on the chart. Base on my fundamental analysis, I think U/J will retrace more. My target is 38% Fib retracement level.

So I have three targets to take profit now:

- 23.6% fib retracement -- 101.84

- The support line : 101.25

- And 38% Fib retracement , it is also 101 strong resistance level -- 101

Stop Loss: 2.618 fib extension : 103.34

Short at 102.40/50 or anywhere from current price.

This chart for next two weeks.

If NFP is negative. This analysis must be deleted. The position must close.

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bertusch
2 years ago
I will keep the NFP and your analysis in mind (I do not do fundamental analysis). What is the likeliness the NFP is negative?
Reply
Sforex PRO bertusch
2 years ago
NFP negative -- FED wil not taper soon -- QE3 continues -- US stock keeps going to rally -- Nikkei225 rally too -- JPY devalue -- USDJPY rally.

But today, ADP employment data is very good, ADP good -- 80% NFP is good.

Usually, NFP above 180k is positive, below 180k is negative.

The unemployment rate of US might be below 7.2% on Friday because Jobless Claim decreases very much -- Unemployment Rate decrease.
Reply
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