Since 1998 USD/JPY has experienced a BARR Formation. The reversal started started in 2012 as the clever BOJ launched an explosive expansion of their balance sheet.
The market is now at risk of a failed BARR breakout inducing a high probability of re-entering. The line in the sand is 98.70 level. Overnight, the BOJ failed to stimulate the market sending the USD/JPY to the 102 handle.
Let’s get to the important stuff. The weekly 200sma has served as sentiment line for nearly two decades. We’ve seen repetition on a 200sma downside break, then kiss, and if fails all hell breaks out. In the last few weeks the talk of the town was Helicopter money sky rocketing the USDJPY to the 108 handle kissing the 200sma. Overnight the market was disappointed rejecting and the kiss reversed. Serious implications if the 98 level is taken out. Last time this happen it was 1Q08
Failed to stimulate the market? if so, shouldn't we be seeing the usd heading up? This is my 1st yr. getting involved in all this economic stuff so, still learning:) I see it as if they create a stimulous plan the pair should head down in the favor of the Yen and up if does nothing no?