USD/JPY: Technical outlook and review

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Weekly Timeframe: For the past six weeks the USD/JPY pair has been on fire. During that time, price has obliterated two major weekly supply areas (114.650-112.530/117.931-116.799). Last week’s trading action saw the USD rally a little over 380 pips, which resulted in the market closing at 121.439, just under a major a weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.180.

Daily Timeframe: Friday saw the market rally just under 200 pips towards a fresh daily supply area coming in at 122.610-121.540, which was clearly fueled by positive NFP numbers. Could we see a correction from here sometime this week, or will the USD continue marching north? Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.

4hr Timeframe: From our higher-timeframe analysis, we know that price closed around higher-timeframe supply (see above), and with that, a correction in the market could be seen. The NFP result propelled prices above 121, which was subsequently retested as support just before the market closed.

In the event that the market is forced below 121 sometime this week, we could have an opportunity to sell the retest and ride the wave down towards a small 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 120.071-120.366. However, if prices were to hold above 121, we would not be comfortable buying this market at this point in time since we would be effectively trading into higher-timeframe supply.

Buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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