I have left in some of my geometrics & behavioural lines so it might look a bit messy but I hope this isn't too distracting. Sometimes complex behaviour requires, well, more complex interpretation.
The 0.618 line, perhaps the most critical value, describes the separation of the upper portion very well. I believe at some point it will return to it. For me, the moment it crosses the lower of what I call the Modulated Root Note, (the Great Separator, historically making very distinct sections, but almost never behaving along it) the probability of that drop becomes very real. You can see the 'panic' when it has done so before. The other tipping point line is somewhere towards the right edge of the upward parallels which forms a very long term .
This is also why I don't believe the pair is making any great moves up. I call it, the fork & parallels, the Cherry Blossom Line, cuz it moves the pair consistently sideways, like branches, and I er, apart from a few red highlights, coloured it pink.
PS. If anyone is interested in the geometrics and the Fibonacci/self referential numerical sequences, if the sharp downward red 'behavioural' line is the 1.00 (y) to the horizontal (x) then the Cherry Blossom lies along the 0.108