matt_forex
Short

Yen Strength 7/16/14

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
The Yen has been building in strength through the summer. Here price has entered in to a small range(within a larger downtrend), with price being rejected at the .618 fib retracement and the resistance line, which created a confluence of resistance. Recent candle wicks show rejection at the 101.800 level, so I suspect this retracement may becoming to an end.

entry point should be approx. 101.800 area with a stop set in the 102.000 area. This stop placement was chosen since it has been a place of support and resistance in the past, and congestion seems to form there. Take profit would be fluid, evaluate PA and ride the trend down. (monitor the news as BOJ is known to intervene as their currency strengthens)
pcmourao
2 years ago
It was rejected on 1 candle. How valid is that for a rejection?
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matt_forex pcmourao
2 years ago
I count 3 bearish candles, plus a bullish candle with a strong rejection. As well one candle in a tight area like that. Lots of sellers. rejection with one candle = pin bars.
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pcmourao
2 years ago
And if it was rejected, how would I expect to get a short order in at a higher value?
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matt_forex pcmourao
2 years ago
Called a pullback
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pcmourao matt_forex
2 years ago
But if it did pullback to 101.800, wouldn't it be a higher high invalidating that a top was in?
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matt_forex pcmourao
2 years ago
my idea would be invalid if the larger downtrend is broken. The idea was to get in on this downtrend. I might not have been that clear.
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paulyberndt PRO
2 years ago
watching this area too, sell stops sitting at that retracement. Dollar hitting resistance too on weekly
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pcmourao paulyberndt
2 years ago
what are you looking for?
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paulyberndt PRO pcmourao
2 years ago
a second hit at that fib level I will have a sell limit order in.
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pcmourao paulyberndt
2 years ago
What do you mean a second hit? What if it it hit's and breaks?
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paulyberndt PRO pcmourao
2 years ago
then i get stopped out for a small loss and try again at the next higher level. it will likely retest that fib level again
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pcmourao paulyberndt
2 years ago
I think NIKKEI should break high later tonight and if everything works out, it should take USDJPY with it.
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matt_forex paulyberndt
2 years ago
That 101.840 area has a lot of congestion Which hopefully works in our favor. good luck
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matt_forex paulyberndt
2 years ago
So far its working out.
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paulyberndt PRO matt_forex
2 years ago
money piling into the Yen because of fear should be hitting some buy stops soon. will see
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pcmourao matt_forex
2 years ago
I shorted last night because of another reson, but worked out pretty well. Plane crash helped the move sadly.
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paulyberndt PRO pcmourao
2 years ago
yes very sad
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matt_forex paulyberndt
2 years ago
oh I haven't checked the news this morning. so there was a plane crash, it is sad that it helped the move.
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paulyberndt PRO matt_forex
2 years ago
MALAYSIAN JET SHOT DOWN BY BUK MISSILE SYSTEM, INTERFAX SAYS
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matt_forex paulyberndt
2 years ago
I just read that, geo-politically this cannot be good. I suppose it's going to be risk off for the next few days.
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matt_forex matt_forex
2 years ago
and Malaysian airlines can't catch a break
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paulyberndt PRO matt_forex
2 years ago
on the 2 hr chart the median line on the pitchfork is 101.10 area that was from the high of your fib level. so far pitchfork working
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matt_forex paulyberndt
2 years ago
I never used the pitchfork, but read up on it and applied it to the chart. It is following it quite well. What is your 1st profit target?
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paulyberndt PRO matt_forex
2 years ago
101.04 area to retest the swing low from July 3
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