UPDATE #2: USDJPY: A Wave 3? Maybe Not Yet. 240+ Pips Possible

Last week, I presented 2 Scenarios for the next move in this pair. In the first scenario, I suggested that there was a strong possibility that a wave 3 could be starting or started. At the time of the posting, I gave a "make or break" point for the wave 3 scenario (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDJPY - Let's Go Surfing! Wanna Catch A Wave 3?"). Well, as the saying goes, "The best laid plans of mice and men...."! That scenario was invalidated soon after I published it as prices did indeed break below that "make-or-break" point that invalidated my wave count. So back to the drawing board!

Here I've updated the wave count possibility and now see that the wave 2 correction is not yet over so wave 3 will have to wait. And there will be a wave 3. Just not right now. What I see now is the probability that this wave 2 is now unfolding in an possible expanded flat. A rather common pattern for wave 2's. We could be at the tail end of the expanded flat and I've also drawn in a EARLY POTENTIAL Bullish Crab that would be filled at the extreme of the expanded flat at 1.618 extension.

HOW TO PLAY THIS SCENARIO
Right now, I am waiting to see if prices stop before the most recent high point (which I've labeled the end of wave (b) and the end of the previous abc wave. If prices DO NOT EXCEED that point but can come close and then start retreating possibly leaving a double top, then I will expect prices to decline as per my scenario. A relatively low-risk trade is that when prices reach near the previous high point, take a SHORT position there to ride the next leg down to the completion of the bearish crab. That's a POTENTIAL 240+ pips to be had.