We can see two significant bounces off the 104.50 level in the recent past, and we might be looking at a third.
Coincidentally, the SP has bounced more or less at the same time as UJ. Causation? Correlation? Maybe, but who cares.
Of course, the two markets are considered related. When the world is scared and confused, we see a flight to risk-off assets. These include the Yen, gold and the Swissy, for example.
When investors are feeling "superpumped", equities rally and the risk-off assets take a knock. The US-China trade war news releases have proven this point well in recent weeks, with markets flip-flopping between risk-on and risk-off behaviour several times a day.
See why I say "who cares"?
Our job as traders is to profit from moves (not predict them).
So, I'm going to wait for the weekly close on UJ. If we get a nice close like we're seeing now, I'm going to look for longs on UJ, longs on USDCHF and a short (trading a pull back) on GOLD>
Do I think the global big-picture has improved? No. I just follow price.