This is it. Sell USDJPY. USD is about to crash and JPY in a uptrend is a perfect recipe for UJ to freefall into the Abyss.
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Now is a good entry
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Previous entry statement was definitely not a good entry. Since it's very unpredictable whether there will be another bullrun or not, I recommend to wait for full confirmation of the new trend below 109.2. Today looks good again, actually already better than last time.
Is this USDJPY Going to down tren next week? Because for more 3 days USDJPY is uptrend
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@WayanEkaLautzePutra, UJ fall signals are getting stronger every week, however USD bull runs are pushing UJ back up again. My opinion is that it can not hold much longer and we might see a start this week, but like it has surprised us for many times until now, it may do again this week, up to June 12 I expect, when FED will announce their interest hike or not.
lapin_eliott
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what is your updated view on the latest developments ? the move on usdjpy has started lately, you were anticipating a quick move until 100 before a bullish reversal, it means that we only have two weeks to go to 100 before the fed meeting which if hiking rate should be the trigger for the bullish run, but it seems quite impossible to go that low in only two weeks though. regarding gbpusd until now the only pair that would "catch" securely any good gbp move seems to be shorting eurgbp instead of shorting gbpusd for which i do not see a clear end of the collapse.
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, There have been a lot of signals indeed, all pointing to the crash of the USD which will make UJ fall. However, every time a miracle happens and exactly when the USD is on the verge of falling, a mysterious buyer steps in and buys huge quantities for a long period of time. Price action looks far from natural and I suspect it's the FED with their repurchase operations to manage inflation without changing the interest.
Mid November 2017 I detected signals that were pointing to a potential drop of UJ to a value of 100 JPY to the Dollar which would happen as a series of falls over a period of 4 to 6 weeks. Between then and now I have seen numerous interferences to stop the USD from falling and UJ hasn't fallen since then .. yet. March this year it became more obvious that the USD had to make place for other currencies and I suspect the FED started purchasing operations to reposition the USD and avoiding it from losing too much value, see FED implementation note; federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180502a1.htm
So technically we already have had a few drops that could be part of the UJ drop to 100 overall process. Today it actually looked again like it would fall substantially and then before London session started, which would definitely kick of the fall, the most brutal purchasing operation ever was started. It lasted for a few hours and sucked away all EU and GU buying pressure so there is none left to complete the final moves. This is a unique situation and it's hard to predict what we can expect next. If it continues it will take the previously predicted 4 to 6 weeks, however I noticed that the fall would be with more force than previously anticipated, that much it could happen in only two weeks time, i.e. from the moment it starts falling.
If UJ falls it may be balanced with a rise of EU or GU. It's a rise and not another fall because the USD sits on the opposite side of the pair name.
lapin_eliott
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hope that with yesterday and todays moves, you're convinced now that usdjpy won't go down
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, Not at all, the bull runs are getting weaker every day and as I'm typing this CAD just took price back from USD in another bull run.
lapin_eliott
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the target zone managed by the BOJ and Fed for price stability is 114 and higher, usdjpy won't have any significant reversal before reaching this area. shorting usdjpy is by far the worst deal for months to come
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, BOJ a target zone of 114? That can't be good for their export. Btw, even if FED & BOJ has targets it doesn't' mean they can always set those rates as they prefer. The bull runs that have been going on my have been the Federal Reserve and they would limit their spending to 30B per day. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180502a1.htm
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, i'm torturing you i admit, i just want to see how you adapt with the following developments as i'm not as optimistic and over enthusiastic like you about usdjpy. by the way 114 wouldbe better for their exports, i do not understand this comment
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, You're right, my bad, it would be better for the US to drop that for their exports. The following developments seem so far in sync with my predictions.