QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Seeking Some Sanity! Looking For Wave 3?

After a long and confusing consolidation which probably took a lot of money from many traders (admit it, if you tried to trade this pair lately, you most likely lost money!), it has recently busted out and is now making some solid moves. It's typical after a long consolidation that we'll see big swings as bears and bulls start jumping in and moving the market. And that is what is happening now. So in the above chart, what I am showing is my wave count expectations for what I believe has happened and what is still to come.

But first, take a look at this DAILY Chart below:
DAILY CHART - Wave Count

In this DAILY chart, I am showing a longer term PRICE STUDY that I believe is just ONE of the many possibilities. But focusing in on the recent price movements, you can see that what prices did was form a triangle during the consolidation and then broke down out of that triangle in what turned out to be a false break. Prices quickly reversed in a V-Reversal and broke back above the upper TL of that triangle. After breaking over that upper TL, it is now dropping in a retrace to retest that upper TL again.

WAVE COUNT
This movement from the false break back up is most likely a 5-wave wave (c) to complete the wave B of an ABC flat correction. Within this wave (c), the retrace back down to retest the upper TL is possibly a wave (2) of a 5-wave move. When this 5-wave move up wave (c) is completed, then that will also complete the wave B and we should be seeing a larger wave C down. Keep in mind that depending on future movements, wave counts can change. There are several different counts that can be applicable here and my count is not necessarily the absolute correct one. But other counts I have tried also point the way up as well.

PATTERNS
There is a POTENTIAL Cypher pattern that is close to being completed. It completes right near that upper TL of that triangle and should mark the completion of the wave (2) and setup the beginning of the wave (3) up. This cypher is also a trend continuation pattern.

The larger POTENTIAL Bat (blue) completes close to a MAJOR SR Structure that I have marked on the chart. If prices move to complete this bat, then it will have retested the highs and if this bat holds and prices do not break the highs, then we will see a large wave C down of an ABC move in a wave (B).

MY TRADE PLAN
I am waiting for prices to drop a little more to complete the POTENTIAL cypher and retest the upper TL of that former traingle. When it does do this, I'll be looking for bullish PA for a good opportunity to get in LONG.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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