finitemonk

THE DOLLAR: A TECHNICAL PROBLEM

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
69 0 0
Losing the most immediate remaining support overnight, dragged by the stock markets, a drop to 97.6 looks likely. Its out the bottom of at least one major channel. There is some evidence of a 'shadow' to the green line as shown which may hold it (for now)(that should show as a parallel). That green line is a very historic reoccurring 'theme' line. The problem I see is that a further weakening of the dollar will, certainly looking at the EUR and AUD charts trigger the loss of very significant containment or upper resistance. (The EUR will break out of a long term downtrend fork, & the AUD snaps above its current entrapment, both of these looking likely). If these resistances are lost it could escalate rather quickly, pushed on by rapidly rising commodities ( Gold             - critical resistance @ approx. 1354/ key support @ around 1316, btw             precious metals aren't so much falling as hanging upside down from their intended destination/break points) As far as I can see, the only reentry point for the USDJPY             back into its channel is the crossing of the two lines at the 17.00 UTC on Monday. If it fails (and then) in particular breaks the support @ 97.6 and/or triggers these 'flash points', which will only take a very minor weakening, with a cascading effect, it could be a long way down. Oops, accidentally left on note to self :)
PS. This may be why the extreme indecision/jitters of late have turned to a slightly weird 'suspension' or flatlining every so often.
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