When I last posted this chart, it never broke down out of the congestion zone it was in at the time and mounted another swing high. However, it is worth monitoring closely as it is now against many structural resistance and despite seeming strong swing is showing weaker momentum compared with previous major leg. With DXY showing similar corresponding resistance and Momentum divergence.
Hence, potential reversal could have higher odds. Obviously the potential short could be considered on retracement as initial leg down appears near complete.
Well.. lots of rational analysis you can find everywhere, yet few good results .. I can assure u that result is what really matter .
DanV
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I am sure. Mine might fall into that category or not. We will have to see how it plays out. Thanks for your comments.
DanV
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Here is the monthly chart for perspective
A-shot
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Nikkei is in the same spot.
DanV
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Yes indeed, and they are highly correlated.
traderWgun
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The movement from 2011 low looks very impulsive.
What is the reason for you labeling it as corrective?
Is it the longer term price action?
Looking at the RSI, we got double RSI divergence, which is very common when the market has completed 5 waves up.
I agree that we should see weakness in the short term for 2 reasons:
Dollar rally looks mature
Yen strength looks likely.
But the weakness in USDJPY should prove corrective.
I see no reason why one would look at this rally as corrective at the moment.
Good luck!
DanV
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Because, as you know if we have major ending diagonal in down trend, then this would be wave 4 which now looks complete. Hence a zigzag could fit, still it allows for that strong rally which could be wave a or c, but those are difficult to fit in the patter so far.