Major pairs USDCAD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD are syncing up with CADJPY, CHFJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY at the moment of writing. At the center sits UJ ready to drop endlessly into the Abyss. It will lift USDJPY to the price level of one of the others mentioned before and than crash down immediately.
Good news for UJ bulls is that I expect a power run for USD till June right after.
Order cancelled
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Postponed
Trade active
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Comment
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I see I never updated this trade. My apologies for those who followed up and held on to it. I trust you adhere to sound risk management practices. In the meantime have a look at this market correlation overview tradingview.com/chart/gAMsy1vW/
@lapin_eliott Hi mr Elliot the Rabbit, do you still follow the UJ seasonality phenomenon? Convinced by its inevitability already?
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, when something is endlessly delayed and breaking the scheduled entry dates of the cycles one after another, we have to rethink what is the meaning of inevitable and seasonality. one day UJ will go down but it cannot be for the reason we have called months and months before, this is just by chance. now i believe that the market has lost totally its structure, those structures you were rationally using to have a sound and rational analysis, but without these structures anymore, we just cannot make anykind of analysis unfortunately
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, The cycles have not changed. It's just that counter cycle speculation has become stronger and stronger since April last year and because of the slower execution of the seasonality this time it has dragged on the opening bell from August till now. My opinion doesn't change and I foresee only a deeper drop every day the opening bell is further delayed. With BOJ and GBP YE coming and USD losing steam I only see it getting closer and closer to happening soon. If it doesn't this week than it likely near the end of the month May or early June when GBP cycles are synced at annual maximum buying power. With a brexit deal or no-deal waiting for us as well my doubt for this all to complete this year is very little...
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, and your market correlation overview is not clear at all, what is the meaning ofthe big arrow ? if it means stock market going up it is in total contradiction with your expectation of usdjpy going down.
moreover i still have one question : your usdjpy crash you are waiting so much, cannot we just say that it did occur already the first week of january after all ? so there would be no reasons for it to resume again now in march after all ...
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, Yes, the big arrow if for it's the main chart direction, which is the stock market. Not against my expectation. You seem to have a difficulty to accept UJ going down while the stock market goes up. We discussed this before, the correlation between the two is not 100% positive. No correlation is 100% and its coefficient is more often very seasonal, therefor I have added the correlation indicator for DXY & US30 at the bottom of the charged, indicating at this time around they correlate negatively.
The drop early January was not UJ seasonality because the opening bell is still being prepared. However, there has been some UJ downside during the stretched execution of this...
lapin_eliott
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this is getting really ugly, i see no sign at all from small to long time scale heralding a reversal on usdjpy, it seems totally unstoppable
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, It's a huge battle. Today we will see who will win I think.
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, the disturbing part of your analysis is that you are advocating for a rise of the yen .... and of the AUD at the same moment, this would be quite strange and original to see that as jpy and aud have a clear tendancy to be completely opposite in trend timing.
Deep-Peat-Shark
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@lapin_eliott, Where do you read that I advocate a rise of the AUD and JPY at the same moment?
lapin_eliott
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@ArnaudKleinveld, if both your usdjpy short and audjpy/audusd long are active at the same moment it shows that you expect approximately the same timing of move for these pairs. and even worse they could be wrong all at the same moment, which unfortunately is happening now, jpy a has lost, nothing will stop usdjpy on the upside now ... the same goes with aud far too weak when usd is so strong