UJ is in a steep decline, thanks to stocks tanking and Gold rising. Risk off sentiment is strong right now, and should remain so until the FOMC decision Wednesday. And the FOMC decision and comments may actually make is WORSE if they are hawkish and looking to hike more than once in 2019.
For now UJ looks to be working on a wave (3), which is nearly complete and preparing for a bounce. Wave (4) should create a decent bounce, but I doubt it will go higher than 113 round or even close. Wave (5) should typically come to the 4.236 extension of wave (1), especially given the momentum of (3).
Lets see how this plays out.
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Background: This UJ story starts in early October 2018, with my search for the mythical ''top''
As the downtrend progressed, I started looking for a ''final leg'' down
Then it seemed we had found a temporary bottom:
But then came the Stock market swoon, so it seemed to need one more leg down yet
Then another bounce when Trump-Xi talks were rumored to be making good progress
Of course, we all know how that turned out, and stocks have been diving. So the current plan to target a ''bottom'' to close shorts
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Here we are, perhaps end of wave 3 and a bounce for wave 4 possibly
close up shows a near exact bounce at the 3.0 fib BUT it was not as exact nor as strong of a bounce, but lets see what happens now
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support is looking a little better, but clearly the risk sentiment is holding it down
Hey mate, your posts are always so comprehensive yet easy to read, as a neophyte trader I always appreciate your charts posts. Thank you!
UnknownUnicorn2421992
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Thanks euro,
I took a scalp tp on the EURUSD short and think short AUDUSD will be nicer to go into the FOMC decision.. thoughts? Seems it could be a more dovish hike given the sentiment at the Economic club.
EuroMotif
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@Wacc, Hi. Yeah, everybody is expecting a dovish hike and perhaps it will be as such since the latest speeches have been walking back the timeline for future hikes. But I remain a Dollar bull, just need to un-price the 4 hikes 2019 which is now down to 1 in market expectations. I am thinking the Fed will hint at 2 in 2019, so USD might gain some strength after the FOMC statement. This will be a crucial day for many markets....