Following back-to-back buying tails around the underside of weekly resistance at 114.12, the USD/JPY plummeted over 200 pips lower during the course of last week’s session, reaching lows of 110.66. From the weekly scale, the weekly support level at 110.09 is likely going to be the next objective to reach, since this barrier has provided significant support and resistance to this market stretching all the way back to1997! On the other hand, daily support at 110.96 (the Feb 11th low) has, including Friday’s bounce, held this market higher on three occasions now so it is certainly not a number to ignore! In the event that the bulls decide to take on weekly sellers here, the next upside daily target can be seen at the underside of the recently broken range – 112.56.
Stepping across to the H4 chart, Friday’s bounce was clearly supported by the 111.00 handle as well as daily support at 110.96, managing to reach highs of 111.75 by the day’s end. Intraday resistance at 111.54 seems to have given this market some trouble following this bounce as price tried to close above this number but failed on each of its three attempts.
On account of the above, here is what we have logged for this week’s sessions:
For sells:
• The H4 resistance area coming in at 112.15-112.42 looks to be a nice zone to watch for possible shorts this week, due to it being positioned relatively close to the underside of the daily range lower edge at 112.56.
• Look for shorts on the break/retest of 111.00, targeting the weekly support mentioned above at 110.09.
For buys:
• At this point, even though daily support at 110.96 is in play, we favor the sell-side of this market for the time being owing to where price is positioned on the weekly timeframe (see above), so no buys are recommended.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to consume the 111.00 level and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (Lower timeframe confirmation required). 112.15-112.42 region Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
Stepping across to the H4 chart, Friday’s bounce was clearly supported by the 111.00 handle as well as daily support at 110.96, managing to reach highs of 111.75 by the day’s end. Intraday resistance at 111.54 seems to have given this market some trouble following this bounce as price tried to close above this number but failed on each of its three attempts.
On account of the above, here is what we have logged for this week’s sessions:
For sells:
• The H4 resistance area coming in at 112.15-112.42 looks to be a nice zone to watch for possible shorts this week, due to it being positioned relatively close to the underside of the daily range lower edge at 112.56.
• Look for shorts on the break/retest of 111.00, targeting the weekly support mentioned above at 110.09.
For buys:
• At this point, even though daily support at 110.96 is in play, we favor the sell-side of this market for the time being owing to where price is positioned on the weekly timeframe (see above), so no buys are recommended.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to consume the 111.00 level and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (Lower timeframe confirmation required). 112.15-112.42 region Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
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