Investors sometimes are so focused on short term movements that we forget the past. Historically the federal fund rate as averaged around 5+. As shown on the chart major retraction of the usdjpy
pair began in 2007 and was made worse with the economic conditions of 2007. The fed from 2007 to now has kept the fed rate around the zero bound area. Zero-bound markets react more volatile to changing interest rates than higher interest rate markets. As the fed raises the fed rate at a constant rate we should see the pair in short term retract but in long run trend to the normalized line above 123.600. Getting out of the zero bound area is going to take some time, but we are close. With the pair hovering around 100-101 we could see some major movement this year. On the downside, the fed isn't about to rush into higher rates. we could be entering a channeling period between 101.453 and 93.753. I will be updating this chart as the year goes on.