QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #1: Contracting Triangle Wave 4

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
492 5 13
This is a simple contracting triangle scenario where prices are now completing the wave E of the triangle with prices almost reaching the top TL of the triangle. There is a POTENTIAL bearish cypher that falls just short of the top TL. But in this scenario, I suspect that wave E may be a throwover with prices reaching up to the .618 retrace of the wave 3 before wave 4 finishes. Which of course would invalidate the cypher .

Here's the 4Hr view of this scenario:


Under this scenario, I would be looking for price reaction when it reaches that upper TL to see if it will reverse. Although there is that cypher there, I am not so inclined to take any SHORT positions off that cypher because I'd want to see prices at least reach that upper TL before reversing or even see the "throwover" wave E. At this time under this scenario, I would just stand aside for now.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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2 years ago
Hi, can I see where levels you put the Fib in tha 240 Min Chart ?
EverythingForex PRO sam_thesupreme
2 years ago
Sorry. I'm not understanding....what do you want to see? The above charts are the 240M charts so I'm kinda confused what you are asking.....?
2 years ago
My prefered scenario BUT i think we should take the decision before the news because usually news are the trigger for the triangle thrust.
EverythingForex PRO FullTimeTrader
2 years ago
FTT, I'm inclined to agree with you about taking off profits before the FOMC later. Prices have already reached the upper TL and are just pausing there. Probably will just go sideways until the FOMC. So really can't tell if it will break the TL or not. I'll be making that decision within the next hour...

I still prefer my Scenario #2 (just being greedy I guess since that leads to much larger profits). But another reason I prefer Scenario #2 is because of the correlation with EU. I expect EU to take a dive to the bottom of its own triangle before finally making a large move up. So for that to happen, UJ must go up. I don't trade on correlations as I trade whatever each chart tells me to trade but can't totally ignore it either. GL, my friend!
+1 Reply
2 years ago
I am also seeing a triangle formation are you've pointed out so technically speaking, we shouldn't see the high go past point C @121.317 as you've pointed out at the 0.618 retracement.
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