QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Scenario #1: Contracting Triangle Wave 4

This is a simple contracting triangle scenario where prices are now completing the wave E of the triangle with prices almost reaching the top TL of the triangle. There is a POTENTIAL bearish cypher that falls just short of the top TL. But in this scenario, I suspect that wave E may be a throwover with prices reaching up to the .618 retrace of the wave 3 before wave 4 finishes. Which of course would invalidate the cypher.

Here's the 4Hr view of this scenario:

MY TRADE PLAN
Under this scenario, I would be looking for price reaction when it reaches that upper TL to see if it will reverse. Although there is that cypher there, I am not so inclined to take any SHORT positions off that cypher because I'd want to see prices at least reach that upper TL before reversing or even see the "throwover" wave E. At this time under this scenario, I would just stand aside for now.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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