Following the strong buying over the past two weeks, price continues to march north, pushing this market further above the major weekly supply area at 124.13-122.22. If this buying continues, we may see price shake hands with a major weekly swap level coming in at 125.44.
Daily view: From this viewpoint, it is clear to see that price has now connected with a daily visible at 125.69-124.62, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice that this zone surrounds the aforementioned weekly swap level.
4hr view: The 4hr timeframe shows that the recent surge from the 124.00 psychological threshold begun once the U.S session opened for business (the point where the London and U.S sessions overlap – is usually seen). The push was strong, and took out a minor 4hr at 124.44-124.21. It was only once price hit 124.90 – only ten pips below 125.00, did we see the market stabilize.
So that we’re all on the same page here, let’s just quickly recap… The weekly chart shows price appears to be heading for the weekly swap level 125.44, while the shows price has already reached a daily at 125.69-124.62. So, where does this leave us on the 4hr chart? Well, we could short from 125.00 should price reach this number. In doing so, we would have higher-timeframe selling pressure from the aforementioned daily likely by our side. However, against us is the possibility that price may fake out above 125.00 to the mid-level number 125.50, which is effectively the weekly swap level 125.44.
Therefore, our team has come to a general consensus that shorting from 125.00 poses too much risk of a fakeout up to 125.50, since higher-timeframe information usually precedes that of the lower timeframe. Once, or indeed if we see price break 125.00 and connect with 125.50, we may then consider a short trade.
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).