ICmarkets

USD/JPY Technical outlook and review.

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
67 0 0
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• The weekly chart shows buying pressure is being seen from the long-term weekly support at 101.206, a positive close below this level has yet to be seen.

• Buyers and sellers have been seen trading within a medium-term range now for about two months (Resistance: 102.713 Demand: 100.747-100.967) now. If we see a positive close below the aforementioned daily demand area, is this the end for the buyers? Not quite. A break below would likely see price trading down to daily demand at 99.562-100.247 where active buyers are quite possibly lurking. What would this look like on the weekly timeframe if we did indeed see a reaction at this daily demand (99.562-100.247)? Our guess is it would look like a carefully-planned fakeout, which would no doubt give pro money lots of liquidity in the process.

Can you believe that! Price did not drop down two more pips to fill our pending buy order set just above the 4hr decision-point area (101.187-101.276) at 101.292.

Price is doing exactly as expected it would (except from filling our buy order of course)! The circled area at 101.516 likely consumed the sellers around the 4hr D/S flip area at 101.400-101.465 thus clearing the path up to at least the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754. Once, or indeed if we get a close above the high 101.595, we will be attempting to trade the retest up to the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754.

Conversely, if pro money has not got enough sell orders to buy into around the aforementioned high, we may very see a decline back down to the 4hr decision-point area at 101.187-101.276 to collect the much-needed liquidity for a stronger push north.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point area (101.187-101.276) at 101.292. The reason a pending buy order has been set here is because this remains an important area as this is the likely where pro money buyers made the ‘decision’ to push prices higher above the D/S flip area at 101.400-101.465, making this zone a magnet for a first-time reaction.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.


• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (102-191-102.104) at 102.074. A P.A confirmation sell order was used here purely for the simple fact we are trading around a higher-timeframe weekly support level at 101.206 meaning we may see a small reaction, but nothing to write home about, hence the need for confirmation!
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the decision-point level (101.754) at 101.733. We have not chosen a pending sell order here for the simple reason, price could very well ignore this area, and continue on higher due to the amount of touches this level has seen in the past.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 101.292 (SL: 101.166 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.953 (SL: 103.317 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: 102.074 (SL: likely will be set at 102.214 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 101.733 (SL: likely will be set at 101.859 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
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