Mizuki32

USDJPY: long-term picture

Long
FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
495 views
14
I would like to long "USDJPY" because the price is likely to make new high after correction.
After second half of the year, I will change my strategy from long to short.
Analysis:
1) Price is moving in wave {B}-(C)-3.
2) Price shows alternation between subwaves 2 and 4.
- subwave 2: sharp correction (more than 78.6% retracement of subwave 1)
- subwave 4: sideways correction (at least 23.6% retracement of subwave 3)
3) 14-day slow stochastic oscillator shows positive correlation with the price action.
- Crossing back above the oversold 20 line can be used as a buy signal.
4) Price is above the cloud. The picture is still bullish . Thicker cloud should provide great support.
5) 23.6%-38.2% retracement level looks like a good buy zone.
6) 2.618 extension level: (C)=2.618(A) looks like a reasonable upside target.
- It also lines up with 2016 high when BOJ decided negative interest rate policy.

Let's see how it goes!
Comment: Weekly chart:
Comment: Today's and yesterday's simple moving average of previous n bars:
MA(0) = {P(0) + P(1) + ... + P(n-2) + P(n-1)}/n
MA(1) = {P(1) + P(2) + ... + P(n-1) + P(n)}/n
Subtraction:
MA(0) - MA(1) = {P(0) - P(n)}/n
From MA(0) - MA(1) = {MA(0) - MA(1)}/1,
MA(0) - MA(1) can be regarded as the slope of tangent line.
Definition of Momentum:
Mom(0) = P(0) - P(n)
Conclusion:
Momentum is proportionate to the gradient of simple moving average.

Comments

@Mizuki32, Hello Mizuki! As always a very well tailored and explained chart!!! Appreciate the things you do and generous to share with community! Best wishes, Aibek
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aibek aibek
@Mizuki32, by the way it's Ultra-Japanese ))) - Yen + Ichimoku clouds + Heiken Ashi candles + Japanese lady as a tailor ;-)))
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@aibek, Haha:) Thank you for your compliment, Aibek. I wish you will have a great year 2017!
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aibek Mizuki32
@Mizuki32, )))) No this is crystal pure truth like a water from Fujiyama mountain! Keep posting please! Thank you for wishes! Best of luck to you and every success!
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