- USDollar index strengthens
- USDJPY moves towards defined target
- Copper rises in relief rally, limited to 3.149
Just about a month ago, my predictive analysis and forecasting system posted a signal indicating a market reversal to the upside, as well as two lofty targets, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 104.095, moderate probability
2 - TG-Hi = 105.475, low probability.
(see original USDJPY chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/ctOy3BSx/)
On the back of improving US domestic fundamentals combined with a continuation of a easing in Japan, the net effect is carrying out its expected rallying in the pair.
Structural hurdles at 103.580 (weak) as well as 103.749 might repel bears back, but this remains strong and is expected to overcome these intermediary levels.
Overnight, $Gold was offering early signs of a market reversal, although further evaluation of the metal and a final market reversal confirmation is needed at this point first. If indeed gold continued to soften and finally turned , I would expect further decline in its positively correlated currencies, namely AUD, NZD, CAD and to a certain extent CHF.
(see: AUDUSD chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/CxMkl3fg/)
Other such as $Copper are also expected to be handicap by this potential gold weakening. For instance, my current Copper chart (not included) has shown some strength, but this may represent a limited relief rally, capped at a structural 3.149 level, which pattern traders might recognized as a pattern completion.
(See: Copper chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/NcukjkeE/)
Trend remains ; target are intact; expecting USD to strengthen on the back of relative improvement in domestic data combined with a "race to the bottom" in other currencies, which is expected to reflexively buoy the US Dollar through sovereign mechanisms that are seeking to devalue the countries own currencies, especially in the face of a falling Yuan, which would leave competing exporters in an otherwise unfavorable relative to China. Scattered fundamental events will likely carry push the USD to new levels up and away.
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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As the USDJPY pair carves out new highs, one should remain open to the possibility of a significant unwinding, by as much as 50% of the recent bullish impulse.
Such price unwinding to the downside would find a significant support near 102.563.
A trader interested in shorting this would effectively enter against a prevalent bullish trend.
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Clarification: If USD turned bearish (i.e.: break of 103.428), then look for floor to open up to little structural resistance. Chart above defined 102.563, however, a proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") defines 102.550 as next probable level of support, IF and only IF price turned, which based on the confluence of predictive analysis/forecasting and Janus pattern, is quite a probability.
Time shall tell as always.