Following the Wyckoff logic the USDJPY seems to be undergoing accumulation on the Daily time frame. Demand has been increasing. The downward stride has been broken. After some low volume adsorption a spring has occurred. A change of character can be seen with ease of movement to the upside on the 28th of March with some good volume. Following the low volume pullback going into the Easter break a continuation of this strength can be expected. There has been divergence in the RSI and volume RSI confirming demand entering. Commitment of Traders (COT) report also sees a sharp move to net short positions by commercial interests and hedge funds (See comment section below).
Comment:
Commitment of Traders report for the USD and JPY indicate that Commercial Interests and Hedge Funds have been reducing their long positions in the Yen. Both are net long the USD but for the JPY a sharp down trend is seen with Hedge Funds front running the Commercial Interest.
Comment:
Since the beginning of year there has been a fundamental shift in how the large operators are playing the market. Typically there has been a close correlation with the government bond yields and the USDJPY but a large divergence has occurred. This could point to Japanese monetary officials limiting their interventions to weaken the Yen and points to Yen strength. The current accumulation could point only to a correction in the larger underlying Yen strength.
Comment:
Using a Point and Figure Chart the upside objective is between 109 and 112
