claydoctor
Short

USD and JPY strength and weakness says it all

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
240 4 3
USD/JPY             has had its run, and its over. FED, BOJ, ECB, etc. "saved us (them) for being too big to fail". The chart says it all. IWM             has had some sanity brought to it, SPY             loosing momentum , IYT             in the clouds and just way overdue, this currency pair is flat lined on the chart, but MACD and RSI are predicting its future, and soon. Note the correlation between now and 2006-2007. Some sayings come to mind like, you might want to look away, as you hear the car tires screaching, but you haven't heard the crash yet. I get a kick out of the almighty FED, saying the effects of tapper will be gentle, and they will let everyone know in advance all their moves like they can actually control everything and everyone (Ha). When I hear that, I think pride goes before the fall. This run has been a complete and controlled manipulation of markets by the world banks. And their little spats or "wars" have resulting in interesting day trading. But negative interest rates are next? We have entered the twilight zone folks. Any real economic momentum is gone. Without that, consumers stop spending, note that IWM             and XLY             are friends, and SPY             and IYT             are paired. Without economic momentum , the markets have to react, because at the end of the day, the markets are based on that. After corporations have laid off everyone they could (and let the government pay them extended unemployment with printed money), down sized, moved to tax friendly neighborhoods, gone paperless, eliminated "customer service", done their M&A, put retail brick and mortar on the shelf, finished their stock buy backs, and reduced the size of products and kept the price the same, etc. they have no bullets left to increase growth and profit margins. The corporate tighten up momentum is done. Without growth investors look for... wait for it, dividends, and... now value? That "rotation" is about done. A flat line market is no fun for the big boys, and pensions fund managers, so what's next... wait for it, 3X funds, options, and options on 3x funds to meet their quotas and get those bonuses. Yikes! Where margins % spiked recently, now I see those have even fallen. Ominous. Has the rotation final stage to cash in progress? I know we are all not guru's, and I am certainly NOT one, but I am not stupid, and I see where all this is heading, with great effort and every possible trick being played to avoid the inevitable crash of crashes. The bigger they are, the uptrends, the harder they fall. God does not change, human nature does not change, "greed and fear are a constant", and history repeats. If the charts just "reflect", then are we looking in the mirror with clear eyes? I know this is not NEWS, and this is more of a rant than a chart idea ( I hope the MODS don't remove it) , and I know the world banks are aware of all this and way more, so I am guessing the crash will be averted, but I think the "how" scares me more than anything else or a market crash, and what results from that. A new world financial order and system :( ?
claydoctor
2 years ago
BTW, the green arrows are when Abenomics started. First the US, then Japan, now Europe, and then?
Reply
Well, truth be told, anyone who's been looking at charts sure knows that a drop/crash/correction is due. Anyone with some basics can definitely throw up a chart and call for shorts. Sure it might work for institutionals with some good equity to support the adverse moves that comes with the trade, but I doubt any of them lurk around here on TV. So, for the average trader, going short without a guidepost would be disastrous to say the least.

Unless there is something more substantial, I'm sorry but this chart is just like the rest, vague at the very least. Yea, we know something's coming... but the what/when/where point of view would make the doomsday scenario a lot more understandable.
Reply
claydoctor justatrader
2 years ago
Justa... You are right of course, what you said is also what "everyone" is saying. So do you have actionable advice and a pick or two you want to share? What are you putting your money in these days? For me, its the TZA and TNA channels, which have been the most consistent of any on my radar, and have been very very good to me, until something changes. Do you know of something that would confirm the bull market is here to stay? Here's a chart. ...
TZA ready for a healthy bounce on high volume

Reply
justatrader PRO claydoctor
2 years ago
Nothing on my end to confirm a continuation of the bull market, but yea a correction is definitely on the cards.. and more importantly USD weakness. USDJPY definitely on the short side.
This is how I view it:
USDJPY - Descending Triangle
Reply
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