Sforex
Long

USDJPY in Super Thursday: Could a surprise happen ?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
213 1 3
Next 24h, market pays all attention on two key data:

- US GDP

- BOJ Meeting.

Both risk events are very and extreme improtant to watch.

- Today, FED surprised market by leaving the door opens for a possible rate hike on December; depend on data, they will have appropriate action.

However, they need a good reason to justify for that action. Data plays the key role, and US GDP tomorrow is a good data to consider.

In my opinion, I choose positive data. Consensus is 1.6%, I think economists present a so low forecast, US economy according to my view, performs better than economists think, at least printed at 2% or higer.

I especially take care BOJ Meeting. Clearly Japan economy is lower than what BOJ and PM Shinzo Abe             wants. They must do somehthing.

Last year, USDJPY             soared more than 500 pips when BOJ surprised market by extending QE . Could it happen again tomorrow ?

Likely, at least in the context of global slowdown. ECB gave a signal to act, and Will BOJ follow ECB ?

I think BOJ should do something to support inflation and export sector. The depreciation of BOJ is not enough, BOJ need more, especially when Japan takes part in TPP Agreement, to sell more product outside, they must take down Yen more and more.

The likely case for USDJPY             tomorrow is still BUY.

- Technical Analysis

USDJPY             still holds above Kumo cloud, struggle around SMA200 and EMA50, while RSI hold above support.

There is no clear signal in TA.

FA is taking the stage, so I don't have much idea for TA.

I am holding a LONG position of UDJPY at 120 pricing to 122.
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