AbhishekHSinghCMT

USDJPY- Possible Ending Diagonal (E.D) -Wedge (Premature)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
979 26 12
The move from 109.80 to 111.18 was a part of yet to develop first leg in the Ending Diagonal or traditionally we call it a wedge , but it is still premature & I am open for this as there is an overlap between last two consecutive waves.

Once it starts moving above 110.90 likely it will cross 111.36 -previous high in slanting upwards, which will give the 3rd leg of the wedge or E.D. Then 4th leg downside should not go below 110.26 & take a final turn upside filling the criteria of giving us wedge .

This Wedge will be exciting to see as reaction post its formation shall be a sharp downside, but this is premature & one should keep an eye as one of the formation & lot of trading opportunities in between.

Exciting Trade (Premature)
Most exciting trade will be post its completion -once done likely giving us strong downside move but in the current scenario, we will wait for internal wave-iii then wave-iv down not taking out 110.26- wave -ii bottom & later wave-v -- finally the most exciting wave- sharp down.

Trade active: 13:28 Hrs 22nd Nov2016

Last Price@110.89

Recent High@111.23

The recent jump was internal leg upside in wave-iii of E.D. Holding 110.26- wave -ii bottom it could go above 111.36 to complete wave-iii & then turn downside for wav-iv in down -up-down fashion, but should not break 110.26 -wave-2 low for having final wave-v in upside direction
Trade active: 18:33 Hrs 22nd Nov2016

Last Price@110.95

From lows of 110.55 above 110.26 it pushed upside & trading at 110.95 going above 111.36 will complete internal wave-iii
Trade active: 21:00 Hrs 22nd Nov2016

Last Price@111.22

This internal wave which started from 110.55 could end in the zone 111.40-111.50 zone- that will fulfill our wave-iii objective

Post that I shall be looking for wave-iv

snapshot
Trade active: 05:58 Hrs 23rd Nov2016

Good Morning, All,

Internal Wave -iii is still incomplete & looks to have b-wave triangle & waiting for c-wave. c-wave could measure 78.6% of a-wave= 111.65 & 100% of a-wave = 111.85 before it could turn for wave-iv

Key support-110.80

Looking upside, above 111.30 for 111.65-111.85 zone before it turns back in yet to complete wave-iii

snapshot
Trade active: 13:13 Hrs 23rd Nov2016

Last Price@110.95

Key Support-110.80

110.80 should act as support in what I see a triangle in a ((B)) - wave of internal wave-iii of Ending Diagonal. If 110.80 holds support then thrust could be expected upside

snapshot
Trade active: 19:02 Hrs 23rd Nov2016

Last Price@111.82

Target done -100+ pips from 110.80 to 111.82

Let us book profits in internal wave-iii

snapshot
Trade active: 20:25 Hrs 23rd Nov2016

Last Price@112.25
Current High@112.47

Taking an alternate count in consideration

(( ))- means circled wave

Likely E.D. turned into bigger impulsive as wave -iii of E.D cannot be straight like trump tower (booked 100+ pips above) –going forward UJ can extend to 112.95-113 as wave-((iii)) travels 161.8% of wave-((i ))- alternate count
Now wave-((iii)) itself is divided into its 5 waves- i-ii-iii-iv-v out of which we are done with wave –iii of wave-((iii)) at 112.47

Trading Strategy-

So, we can see a pullback to the zone 111.60-111.75 as wave-iv & then push upside to 112.95 to complete wave-((iii))

Execution

Once recent low@112.24 is broken with strict stops above 112.48 –we can expect the pullback to 111.60-111.75
One can expect a pullback to the zones 111.60-111.75 with strict stops above recent high@112.50..

snapshot
Trade closed: target reached: 21:00 Hrs 23rd Nov2016

Last Price@112.67

Short Trade not executed as 112.24 was not taken out.

Thanks for your support
Trade closed: target reached: 22:27 Hrs 23rd Nov2016

Last Price@112.60

Can it be better than this 112.95 - turns exactly from 112.95

snapshot
Trade active: 05:10 Hrs 24th Nov2016

Last Price@112.70

There is a sell setup below 112.35 likely taking UJ to 111.60-111.70 zone.

Once it goes to 111.60-111.70 - it should remain above 111.36-111.30 zone which is not confirmed yet. In that case -UJ could be expected to move up.

snapshot
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
http://in.tradingview.com
| LinkedIn
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
Many thanks for sharing the ideas
Reply
@gulz, Welcome
Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, do we need to watch the price action around 111.36 or directly setting the limits -- whats ur strategy ?
Reply
@gulz, Just posting the update likely in the zone 111.45-111.50 -it should stop
Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, ok , will watch
Reply
Thank you for your ideas
I agree with you,but I am afraid that the price may not be 111.65-111.85
Actually, I stop at 111.89 and sell at 111.400
But should I sell now ? If the wave -iii unsuccessed...
Reply
@leftrighthe, currently its ranging, going above 111.30 -it can push up & down below 110.80- going below 110.80 as well -there is small target zone as wave-iv has to complete above wave-ii which is 110.26. Holding 110.26- there could be buying opportunity as well in wave-v- which shall be the last wave of this structure so let us wait & see how it moves. Looking at the structure -looks like wave is incomplete & it needs some more time & also wave-iii is incomplete because it has turned down below internal wave-i high so likely it should cross wave-i high@111.35 to make this pattern valid.
Reply
leftrighthe AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, thank you so much, let's wait for it
Reply
@leftrighthe, Welcome
Reply
110.8 saved so far ..But UJ not moving at all today
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@gulz, so, that suggest 110.80 is key support & I am correct so far. Let us wait for that impulsive leg upside holding with 110.80
+1 Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, Nice, Me too holding longs with stop loss
Reply
@gulz, So, also note if one gets an opportunity to long again above 110.26 which is a very critical level that could give us more pips upside but here as well 110.26 should not be taken out.
+1 Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, if 110.8 stop loss triggered, then wait for UJ to come around 110.26 for next long entry - right ?
Reply
@gulz, Yes, correct
+1 Reply
Cheers .. booked profit
Reply
@gulz, Great 100+ pips from 110.80 to 111.80+
+2 Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, Thanks , will wait for next setup :)
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@gulz, Keep a watch for UJ to break below 112.35- shall be a sell setup
Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, Watching ..
Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, broken previous high & moving upwards
Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, UJ is about to hit bottom of upward channel - can we use it as a long entry position ?
snapshot
Reply
gulz gulz
@gulz, Just noticed RSI indicates sell -- so long may not be a good idea ?
Reply
@gulz, Hi, I am stuck in official work & likely seems tough for me until this weekend. Regards
Reply
gulz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, ok , will see u next week then :)
Reply
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