The Yen is weak... The weakest against the dollar I have ever experienced in my trading career...
Economically though, Japan is not in the worst situation, especially when compared to key economic figures...
Current global inflation rates; US 8.2%, UK 10.1%, EU 9.9%, AUS 6.1%, CAD 6.9%... Japan 3.0%
GDP growth; US -0.6% (recession), UK 0.2%, EU 0.8%, CAD 0.8%... Japan 0.9%
Unemployment rate; US, UK, EU, AUS all due an increase... Japan steadily low for months
The issue with the JPY weakness is the USD strength caused by raising inflation and JPY weakness caused by BOJ monetary policy
USD Strength - with inflation potentially now pivoting, USD buying pressure may ease. With a 2023 recession becoming more apparent, cash could move to the Yen as a safe haven
JPY weakness - the intervention is not working. The BOJ are likely to make a change in their monetary policy stance, helping to end the Yen selling.
From a technical view, price is looking overbought and over-extended. A move toward the weekly 50 SMA is due. Divergence on the weekly RSI and a head and shoulder reversal pattern forming on the 1 hour.
If price breaks higher, 155 may be the next level of interest, where price could start it's reversal down...
The next BOJ monetary policy release is 28/10/2022...
Economically though, Japan is not in the worst situation, especially when compared to key economic figures...
Current global inflation rates; US 8.2%, UK 10.1%, EU 9.9%, AUS 6.1%, CAD 6.9%... Japan 3.0%
GDP growth; US -0.6% (recession), UK 0.2%, EU 0.8%, CAD 0.8%... Japan 0.9%
Unemployment rate; US, UK, EU, AUS all due an increase... Japan steadily low for months
The issue with the JPY weakness is the USD strength caused by raising inflation and JPY weakness caused by BOJ monetary policy
USD Strength - with inflation potentially now pivoting, USD buying pressure may ease. With a 2023 recession becoming more apparent, cash could move to the Yen as a safe haven
JPY weakness - the intervention is not working. The BOJ are likely to make a change in their monetary policy stance, helping to end the Yen selling.
From a technical view, price is looking overbought and over-extended. A move toward the weekly 50 SMA is due. Divergence on the weekly RSI and a head and shoulder reversal pattern forming on the 1 hour.
If price breaks higher, 155 may be the next level of interest, where price could start it's reversal down...
The next BOJ monetary policy release is 28/10/2022...
